In the first quarter of 2026, Serbia’s foreign trade activity indicates a significant shift in its trade dynamics, with exports growing at a faster pace than imports. This development is viewed as a positive sign for macroeconomic stability and industrial competitiveness in the country.
Total goods trade during this period reached between €19.0 billion and €19.03 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Notably, exports amounted to €8.7 billion, marking a 7.1% rise compared to the previous year. In contrast, imports were recorded at €10.3 billion, with only a marginal increase of 0.3%, suggesting either a slowdown in domestic demand for imported goods or improved local substitution.
The disparity in export and import growth contributed to a reduction in Serbia’s trade deficit, which decreased to €1.6 billion—a 25.4% decline from the same period in 2025. Furthermore, the coverage of imports by exports improved to 84.4%, up from 79.1% a year earlier, indicating enhanced external balance.
Geographically, Serbia’s trade remains predominantly linked to Europe, with the European Union accounting for 59.2% of total trade. This underscores Serbia’s integration as a manufacturing and supply chain hub within the EU framework.
Regionally, Serbia has maintained significant surpluses under the CEFTA agreement, with exports to CEFTA markets reaching approximately €1.1 billion against imports of €361 million. This resulted in a surplus of nearly €740 million and an impressive coverage ratio exceeding 300%, highlighting Serbia’s role as a net exporter of electricity, fuels, and industrial products to neighboring countries.
The composition of trade further illustrates Serbia’s industrial profile, where key exports include electricity, base metals, chemicals, machinery, and automotive components. Conversely, major imports consist of energy inputs, machinery, and intermediate industrial goods, reflecting the country’s manufacturing-driven economy that relies on imports.
Monthly data indicates that export momentum is gaining strength as the quarter progressed. In March alone, exports hit €3.3 billion—a year-on-year increase of 15.4%—while imports surpassed €4 billion, up by 6.3%. This trend suggests that exports may continue to rise into the second quarter, potentially bolstered by recovering demand from the EU and improved industrial output.
Export activity within Serbia is notably diverse across regions. The largest share originates from Vojvodina (29.9%), followed by Šumadija and Western Serbia (25%), Southern and Eastern Serbia (23.6%), and Belgrade contributing 20.4%. This distribution indicates a broad industrial base rather than reliance on a single export center.
Overall, the data from the first quarter reflects a notable improvement in Serbia’s external economic position. The growth in exports is no longer being fully countered by rising imports; rather, the reduced trade deficit signifies strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals that could positively impact future investment and credit conditions in Serbia’s economy.
