BELGRADE, Serbia’s net foreign direct investment inflows roughly halved in 2025 to an estimated 2.4%-2.6% of GDP, down from 5.5% in 2024, according to the European Commission’s Serbia 2026 Report, dated 4 November 2026. The decline reverses a trend in an economy that has relied on foreign capital to support industrial expansion and export growth.
The report gives two estimates for 2025: its statistical table records net inflows at 2.6% of GDP, while its narrative section puts them at about 2.4%. Both readings are roughly half the 5.5% of GDP recorded in 2024.
It links weaker investor sentiment to domestic political turmoil, uncertainty over global trade and sanctions affecting Serbia’s oil industry. Lower inflows also reduce the buffer foreign capital has provided to the country’s current account and domestic investment cycle.
Manufacturing received the largest share of FDI in the reported sector breakdown, at 24.5%. Construction accounted for 17.5%, while professional, scientific and technical activities received 17.0%. The sector mix indicates continued investment in production and infrastructure-related activities despite the overall decline.
The lower inflow raises questions about the durability of Serbia’s subsidy-led investment model. As labour costs rise and the EU tightens carbon, state-aid and supply-chain requirements, investors are expected to put more weight on energy security, productivity, skills, logistics and regulatory predictability. Serbia can still attract capital, but its investment proposition is shifting away from labour cost alone.
