Serbia’s Goods Trade Reaches €74.9 Billion as Export Growth Outpaces Imports

Serbia’s merchandise trade reached €74.93 billion in 2025, with exports expanding faster than imports and improving the country’s export coverage ratio, according to data from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.

Exports increased 8.4 per cent year-on-year to €33.07 billion, while imports rose 7.2 per cent to €41.86 billion. The goods trade deficit widened by 2.9 per cent to €8.79 billion, while the export-to-import coverage ratio improved from 78.2 per cent to 79.0 per cent.

Measured in US dollars, total merchandise trade reached $84.54 billion, representing growth of 12.3 per cent. Exports amounted to $37.31 billion, while imports stood at $47.23 billion, producing a dollar-denominated deficit of $9.91 billion, compared with $9.23 billion in 2024.

Industrial Exports Drive Trade Expansion

The euro-denominated figures provide the more relevant measure of Serbia’s trade performance due to the country’s strong links with European markets and the managed stability of the dinar-euro exchange rate. The 7.7 per cent increase in total trade in euro terms exceeded Serbia’s estimated real GDP growth of approximately 2 per cent in 2025, although nominal trade expansion does not directly represent equivalent growth in physical export volumes.

Serbia’s export structure continues to reflect its role in European industrial supply chains, with electrical equipment, vehicles and metals representing the largest categories. Electrical machinery exports reached approximately €3.6 billion, making them the country’s largest export group. Road vehicles followed with around €2.3 billion, while metal ores and residues accounted for approximately €2.1 billion. Other significant export categories included insulated wiring systems, refined copper, copper concentrates, tyres, electric motors, vehicle components and agricultural products.

Manufacturing and Mining Support Export Growth

The export profile reflects the combination of foreign-owned manufacturing operations and Serbia’s natural-resource base. Automotive and electrical-equipment producers supply European industrial networks, particularly in Germany, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, while copper production in eastern Serbia has increased the importance of metals in national export statistics.

The expansion of mining and metallurgical activity around Bor and Majdanpek, led by Serbia Zijin Copper and Zijin Mining, has increased exports of copper concentrate, refined copper and related products. The automotive sector remains another major contributor. Production by Stellantis in Kragujevac, together with a wider network of component manufacturers, connects Serbia with European vehicle supply chains.

Manufacturers producing cable systems, tyres, electronic components, motors and vehicle parts across industrial centres including Kragujevac, Novi Sad, Subotica, Niš and Zrenjanin contribute to a diversified industrial base. Reliance on several major sectors creates exposure to external conditions. Demand for vehicles, electrical equipment and metals remains closely linked to industrial performance in European Union markets, particularly Germany and Italy.

Imports Reflect Industrial Capacity Needs

Serbia’s import structure mirrors the needs of its manufacturing and infrastructure sectors. Electrical machinery imports were valued at approximately €2.8 billion, while road vehicle imports reached around €2.1 billion. Petroleum and petroleum products accounted for approximately €2 billion.

Additional major import categories included machinery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, natural gas, vehicle components and industrial raw materials. A significant portion of imports supports production rather than final consumption. Imported equipment, automation systems, electrical components and construction machinery contribute to industrial expansion and infrastructure development, while imported intermediate goods are often processed domestically before being exported.

The impact of the trade deficit therefore depends not only on its size but also on whether imported capital goods and industrial inputs generate future export capacity, productivity improvements and domestic value creation.

Energy Imports Remain a Major External Pressure

Energy continues to represent a more challenging part of Serbia’s external trade balance. The country remains dependent on imports of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas. Electricity trade fluctuates depending on hydrological conditions, coal availability, power plant performance and regional market prices.

Higher international energy prices or lower domestic electricity production can quickly increase import costs, affecting industrial expenses and household consumption.

EU Remains Serbia’s Largest Trade Partner

The European Union accounted for 58.3 per cent of Serbia’s total merchandise trade in 2025. Germany was Serbia’s largest export destination, purchasing goods worth approximately €5.1 billion. Italy followed with around €2.2 billion, while exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina reached approximately €2.1 billion.

China and Hungary were also among Serbia’s five largest export markets. On the import side, China became Serbia’s largest supplier, with deliveries valued at approximately €6.4 billion. Germany ranked second with around €4.9 billion, followed by Italy with approximately €2.8 billion. Turkey and Hungary completed the list of Serbia’s five largest import partners.

China Trade Gap Expands Alongside Investment Links

The trade imbalance with China has become a significant feature of Serbia’s external trade structure. Chinese companies have become major investors in Serbia, particularly in mining, metals, infrastructure and automotive manufacturing. At the same time, Serbia imports large volumes of telecommunications equipment, machinery, electronics, industrial components and consumer goods from China.

Exports to China have increased, mainly through copper and mining-related products, but remain significantly below import levels. The economic impact depends on the extent to which Chinese-backed projects generate domestic supply chains, technology transfer, local procurement and higher-value production within Serbia.

CEFTA Markets Generate Significant Surplus

Trade with CEFTA economies produced a substantially different result, generating a large Serbian surplus. Exports to CEFTA members reached €4.88 billion, while imports amounted to €1.92 billion, resulting in a surplus of nearly €2.96 billion.

The export coverage ratio with CEFTA markets reached 253.9 per cent. Key export categories included cereals and processed food, beverages, road vehicles, petroleum products, pharmaceuticals and electrical equipment. Serbian companies benefit from geographic proximity, established distribution channels and stronger market familiarity in neighbouring economies including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia. The overall size of regional markets remains limited compared with the EU, meaning CEFTA cannot replace European demand as Serbia’s primary industrial export destination.

Regional Distribution Shows Concentrated Trade Activity

Export activity was distributed across Serbia’s regions, with Vojvodina accounting for 32.0 per cent of exports, followed by Šumadija and Western Serbia with 22.5 per cent, Belgrade with 22.2 per cent, and Southern and Eastern Serbia with 21.9 per cent.

Imports were more concentrated in the capital region. Belgrade accounted for 45.6 per cent of imports, followed by Vojvodina with 29.5 per cent, Šumadija and Western Serbia with 14.2 per cent, and Southern and Eastern Serbia with 8.8 per cent. The high share attributed to Belgrade reflects the concentration of trading companies, distributors and corporate headquarters rather than the physical destination of all imported goods.

Trade Momentum Continued Into 2026

December 2025 ended with stronger export growth. Serbia exported goods worth €2.69 billion, an increase of 11.3 per cent compared with December 2024. Imports reached €3.72 billion, rising 5.6 per cent year-on-year. The month still recorded a goods trade deficit of slightly more than €1 billion.

The positive trend continued during the first five months of 2026. Exports increased 7.7 per cent to €14.70 billion, while imports rose only 1.0 per cent to €17.68 billion. The deficit narrowed by 22.9 per cent to €2.98 billion, while export coverage improved from 77.9 per cent to 83.1 per cent.

Export Growth Faces Supply Chain and Compliance Challenges

Future trade performance will depend increasingly on the amount of domestic value created within export sectors. Growth based on imported machinery, components, energy and foreign-controlled production can increase trade volumes, but stronger domestic supply chains, deeper processing of commodities, expanded engineering capabilities and higher-value products would improve the sustainability of export growth.

New European Union requirements related to carbon emissions, product traceability and supply chains are also creating additional compliance obligations. Exporters of iron, steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, electricity and selected downstream products increasingly require plant-level emissions data and information on material and electricity origins under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

Serbia’s 2025 trade performance reflects deeper integration into European and regional supply chains, with stronger exports, improved import coverage and a significant CEFTA surplus. At the same time, the country continues to face structural challenges linked to the €8.79 billion goods deficit, dependence on imported energy and equipment, and concentration of key exports in foreign-owned manufacturing and copper production.