Serbia’s external trade performance improved significantly in the first five months of 2026, with export growth exceeding import growth and reducing the country’s goods trade deficit.
Total goods trade reached €32.38 billion in January–May 2026, representing a 3.9% year-on-year increase. The main shift came from the stronger performance of exports, which rose 7.7% to €14.70 billion, while imports increased only 1.0% to €17.68 billion. As a result, Serbia’s goods trade deficit narrowed to €2.98 billion, a reduction of €884.2 million, or 22.9%, compared with the same period of 2025. Exsport coverage of imports improved to 83.1%, up from 77.9% a year earlier.
Manufacturing drives export expansion
The improvement in Serbia’s trade balance was mainly supported by manufactured goods. Manufacturing accounted for 87.9% of total goods exports during the first five months of 2026, with exports from the sector increasing 8.6% cumulatively. Mining also recorded strong growth, although from a smaller base. The sector represented 7.3% of exports and recorded a 35.7% increase in export value. The improvement was not driven by all major export categories. Exports of electricity and agricultural products declined by a combined €275.3 million, representing a 31.7% decrease. The trade balance improvement therefore came primarily from manufacturing and selected industrial sectors rather than from a broad increase in commodity or energy exports.
European Union remains Serbia’s main trade market
Serbia’s trade structure continues to be closely connected with European Union economies. EU member states accounted for 58.8% of total goods trade in the first five months of 2026, compared with 57.8% a year earlier.
Germany remained Serbia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 13.2% of total goods exchange.
China followed with a 11.0% share, while Italy increased its position, with its share rising from 6.2% to 7.7%. The stronger role of Italy reflects changes in industrial trade flows and the performance of Serbia’s automotive export sector.
Regional trade balances show mixed movements
Trade relations with neighbouring markets recorded different trends during the period. Serbia’s traditional trade surpluses with several regional partners declined. The surplus with Bulgaria decreased by 45%, while surpluses with North Macedonia and Montenegro fell by 13% and 4.7%, respectively. Trade with Romania shifted into deficit. Serbia recorded a deficit of €208.2 million with Romania in the first five months of 2026, compared with a surplus of €154.1 million during the same period a year earlier.
At the same time, Serbia strengthened its trade position with Bosnia and Herzegovina. The surplus with that market increased by 124.8% to €454.1 million. Serbia also recorded a surplus with Italy of €72.6 million, reversing a deficit of €324.7 million in the previous year.
Export growth strengthens external position
The improvement in trade performance provides a stronger external-sector position for Serbia, with a lower goods deficit reducing pressure from international trade imbalances. The first five months of 2026 show that Serbia increased exports faster than imports and improved the relationship between domestic industrial output and external purchases.
The country’s goods deficit remains significant, and export performance continues to depend heavily on manufacturing sectors linked to foreign supply chains and European demand. The latest trade figures indicate stronger export momentum, supported mainly by industrial production and selected export categories, while maintaining Serbia’s continued exposure to the European economic cycle.
