Serbia’s external debt increased by EUR 3.5 billion during the first half of 2026, reaching EUR 54.5 billion at the end of June, while the debt-to-GDP ratio also moved higher. The increase covers borrowing from foreign creditors by the public sector, banks and private companies, rather than the broader range of cross-border financial claims included in the country’s international investment position.
According to the October issue of MAT, external debt amounted to 59.3% of estimated GDP at the end of June, compared with 57.6% at the end of 2025. Public-sector external obligations totalled EUR 28.3 billion, representing 51.9% of the overall amount. Private-sector external debt stood at EUR 26.2 billion.
Long-Term Borrowing Dominates Debt Structure
The maturity structure provides a more detailed picture of Serbia’s external liabilities. Long-term debt accounted for 84.4% of the total at the end of June, up from 83.0% at the end of 2025, while short-term debt declined as a proportion of overall obligations.
A higher share of long-term borrowing reduces immediate refinancing requirements because a smaller portion of debt needs to be rolled over in the near term. Within the private sector, companies accounted for approximately EUR 21.7 billion of external debt, while banks owed foreign creditors around EUR 4.5 billion.
Higher Global Interest Rates Increase Financing Costs
The increase in Serbia’s external debt has coincided with a rise in international long-term interest rates to levels not seen for several decades. Although existing fixed-rate obligations are generally insulated from immediate changes in market rates, new borrowing and refinancing will carry higher costs.
Foreign-currency exposure also differs among borrowers. Companies earning revenues in foreign currencies are better positioned to service external obligations than domestic businesses borrowing abroad without a corresponding currency hedge.
Debt Sustainability Depends on Investment Returns
Serbia’s external debt position is supported by meaningful foreign-exchange reserves, a favourable maturity structure and continued economic growth. The expanding stock of obligations and the less favourable international financing environment increase the importance of debt management.
The economic impact of additional borrowing will depend on whether the funds finance assets that strengthen future export capacity and productivity. Debt ratios can remain relatively stable while nominal GDP expands, but slower economic growth combined with persistently higher interest expenses can place greater pressure on the debt burden.
