Serbia’s external debt reached approximately €52.03 billion at the end of March 2026, increasing by around €3.2 billion compared with March 2025 and by nearly €7.6 billion compared with March 2024. The rise comes as Serbia continues to use external financing for government needs, infrastructure development, energy projects and corporate activity. While the country maintains significant foreign-exchange reserves and a moderate public-debt ratio, the composition and purpose of new borrowing remain important factors in assessing external sustainability.
Long-term borrowing dominates debt structure
The majority of Serbia’s external obligations are concentrated in longer maturities. Medium- and long-term liabilities totalled approximately €50.57 billion, while short-term external debt stood at around €1.46 billion. The dominance of longer-term debt reduces immediate refinancing pressure and provides a more stable structure compared with economies where external obligations are concentrated in short-term bank and trade financing.
State borrowing has expanded through several channels, including international bonds, multilateral institutions, bilateral lenders and development banks. These sources have been used to finance budget requirements as well as infrastructure and energy investments.
The economic impact of this borrowing depends on the productivity of financed projects. Investment in transport corridors, electricity networks, renewable energy capacity, wastewater systems and industrial infrastructure can strengthen future growth and export potential.
Corporate borrowing adds another layer of exposure
External debt held by companies represents a separate part of Serbia’s financing structure. Foreign-owned companies can access funding through parent groups and international banks, while large domestic companies use external financing for projects, trade activities and investment needs. Export-oriented businesses with revenues in euros generally have a natural currency hedge against foreign-currency borrowing. Companies generating most income in dinars face greater exposure to exchange-rate movements when liabilities are denominated in foreign currencies. The growth of external debt therefore increases the importance of currency matching, especially for businesses whose costs and revenues are not aligned with the currency of their financing.
Reserves provide liquidity protection
Serbia’s external position is supported by the National Bank of Serbia’s foreign-exchange reserves of €29.61 billion recorded in June 2026.
The relatively limited level of short-term external debt and substantial reserve holdings reduce immediate liquidity risks. The expansion of total debt increases future obligations related to interest payments and principal repayments. International borrowing conditions remain more expensive than before 2022, meaning new debt issuance and refinancing operations are generally subject to higher interest costs.
Although Serbia’s reserves, economic growth and fiscal credibility can help contain sovereign borrowing spreads, changes in geopolitical conditions or domestic political risks could affect market pricing.
External financing linked to trade balance developments
The increase in external debt also needs to be viewed alongside Serbia’s current-account position. During the first five months of 2026, the country’s current-account deficit narrowed significantly, reducing immediate external financing requirements. However, higher energy imports, stronger consumer demand or increased purchases of capital equipment could raise financing needs again.
Serbia’s larger external debt stock highlights the importance of ensuring that borrowed funds support productive activities, export capacity and long-term economic growth. The country’s challenge is increasingly focused on project quality, refinancing management and export expansion as external liabilities continue to rise.
