Serbia’s improving goods trade performance in 2026 has been accompanied by significant changes in its bilateral trade balances across neighbouring markets and key European partners. While the country’s overall goods balance strengthened, trade results varied considerably between individual markets, reflecting shifts in export and import dynamics.
Among the most notable changes, Serbia’s trade with Italy moved to a €72.6 million surplus after recording a €324.7 million deficit a year earlier. At the same time, trade with Romania shifted into a €208.2 million deficit, while the country’s surplus with Bosnia and Herzegovina increased 124.8% to €454.1 million.
Bilateral Trade Performance Varies Across the Region
Trade surpluses with several neighbouring countries narrowed during the period. Serbia’s surplus with Bulgaria declined by 45%, while surpluses with North Macedonia and Montenegro decreased by 13% and 4.7%, respectively. The differing results indicate that improvements in Serbia’s external trade performance are being driven by specific export corridors and product categories rather than broad-based growth across all regional markets.
The turnaround in trade with Italy reflects developments in the automotive export cycle, while Bosnia and Herzegovina continued to serve as a major regional destination for Serbian goods. The emergence of a trade deficit with Romania points to changing import and export patterns involving industrial inputs, machinery, energy products or consumer goods.
EU Industrial Links Gain Importance
The evolving trade structure also highlights differing trends between neighbouring markets and trade linked to the European Union. Serbia has traditionally exported food products, consumer goods, construction materials, energy-related products and manufactured goods to nearby countries.
During 2026, however, the strongest improvements in trade performance were associated with deeper participation in selected European industrial supply chains, increasing the country’s exposure to manufacturing cycles within the EU.
Regional Markets Continue to Evolve
The narrower trade surpluses with Montenegro, North Macedonia and Bulgaria do not necessarily indicate weaker commercial ties. They may reflect higher Serbian imports from those countries, lower exports in specific product categories, pricing effects or temporary sectoral changes.
The figures also illustrate that neighbouring economies continue to adjust their import sources, energy markets, tourism sectors and infrastructure connections, influencing bilateral trade balances.
Bosnia and Italy Record Strongest Positive Shifts
Bosnia and Herzegovina remained one of Serbia’s most important regional export markets, with the €454.1 million trade surplus during the first five months reflecting geographic proximity, established transport links, consumer demand and industrial complementarity.
The shift in trade with Italy represented the most significant bilateral change. The movement from a substantial deficit to a surplus, supported by vehicle exports, demonstrates how developments within a single industrial sector can materially alter trade flows between the two countries. It also illustrates the extent to which bilateral balances can be influenced by the performance of concentrated export industries.
