Serbia’s external trade structure shifted in early 2026, with new bilateral balances emerging across key European and regional markets, according to MAT data showing changes in surplus and deficit positions linked to evolving export composition.
A notable development is the first recorded surplus with Italy, which reached €95.6 million in January–April 2026. At the same time, Serbia registered a €163 million trade deficit with Romania, while previously stronger surpluses with several regional partners narrowed, indicating a broader reconfiguration of trade flows.
Italy Surplus Driven by Automotive Exports
The surplus with Italy is largely attributed to increased car exports, which have strengthened Serbia’s position in bilateral trade. The expansion reflects higher production volumes and growing demand linked to automotive supply chains, particularly within European Union markets.
The automotive connection, supported by the Stellantis production footprint, has become a key factor in shifting Serbia’s trade balance with Italy into positive territory during the reporting period.
Concentration Limits Trade Diversification
Despite the surplus, the improvement in trade with Italy is concentrated in a limited number of products, primarily vehicles. This structure means the surplus is not yet based on a broad range of Serbian exports.
A more diversified export relationship would include machinery, food products, metal goods, furniture, chemicals, electrical equipment and industrial services, expanding Serbia’s commercial presence beyond automotive output.
Regional Trade Surpluses Show Signs of Erosion
Serbia’s traditional trade surpluses with neighboring markets such as Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro have narrowed. These markets have historically supported strong Serbian export performance due to logistics proximity, established commercial relationships and brand recognition.
The reduction in surplus levels may reflect a combination of stronger imports, weaker demand conditions, price movements or changes in energy and commodity trade flows across the region.
Romania Deficit Highlights Competitive Pressure
The emergence of a €163 million deficit with Romania signals increased trade imbalance with a neighboring European Union economy. Romania’s role as a growing industrial and logistics center in the region has increased competitive pressure on Serbia’s export position.
The deficit suggests that Serbia continues to import higher-value or higher-volume goods from Romania while export performance remains insufficient to offset those flows during the period.
Shift in Trade Structure Across EU and Regional Markets
The evolving trade map shows diverging trends between Serbia’s performance in EU-linked markets and its position in regional trade. Gains in some EU channels contrast with weakening margins in parts of the Western Balkans. The expansion of automotive exports has contributed to improved balances in selected markets, but the overall structure remains dependent on a narrow export base. Broader diversification across multiple industrial sectors is necessary to stabilize Serbia’s trade position across both EU and regional economies.
