Serbia’s EXPO 2027 Investment Plan Relies on Decade of Post-Event Economic Activity

Serbia’s EXPO 2027 Belgrade investment programme is projected to generate €3.82 billion in cumulative tax revenue from approximately €2 billion in direct public investment, according to an economic impact assessment prepared by international consultancy Louis Berger.

The study estimates a fiscal return of 1.91 dinars for every dinar invested by the state, but the majority of that return is expected well after the exhibition ends. The assessment covers the period from the start of preparations in 2023 through 2037, making the future use of the EXPO site a central component of the projected economic and fiscal gains.

The direct state investment associated with EXPO is estimated at around €2 billion. Approximately €1.23 billion is allocated to the exhibition complex, including halls, the national pavilion and other buildings, while €775 million is assigned to supporting infrastructure covering roads, rail connections, water and sewerage networks and energy facilities. The National Football Stadium is not included in the €2 billion calculation because it is formally classified as a separate project, although it is being developed within the wider Surčin investment zone.

Private investment expected to expand the EXPO development

Louis Berger estimates that public spending will stimulate approximately €1.83 billion in private investment, taking total public and private investment associated with the EXPO ecosystem to roughly €3.8 billion. Around €500 million of private investment is expected to be committed before the exhibition, with most of the remainder projected to follow after EXPO as hotels, commercial facilities and other businesses develop around the new district.

The combined investment is estimated to generate approximately €9.1 billion of additional economic value for Serbia by 2037 through direct, indirect and induced effects. Direct economic effects include construction expenditure, operation and maintenance of EXPO facilities and visitor spending. Indirect effects include activity among construction-material suppliers, security and cleaning providers, logistics companies and other service businesses, as well as investment by hotels, restaurants and commercial operators.

Induced effects reflect additional household consumption generated from income earned by workers and businesses participating in these activities. The €9.1 billion estimate represents additional economic value rather than tax revenue received by the state. Louis Berger projects approximately €3.82 billion in cumulative tax receipts, while around €5.3 billion represents additional value accruing to households and businesses.

Most economic gains projected after the 2027 exhibition

The timing of the projected benefits is heavily weighted towards the post-EXPO period. The study estimates approximately €2.5 billion of additional value will be generated before the exhibition, followed by another €1.13 billion during EXPO. A further €5.43 billion, or close to 60% of the total, is projected for the period from 2028 to 2037.

The tax-revenue profile follows the same pattern. Approximately €823 million in tax revenue is expected before EXPO, with another €671 million generated during the event. That would leave cumulative tax receipts of around €1.5 billion by the end of the exhibition. The remaining €2.33 billion in projected tax revenue is expected between 2028 and 2037.

Consequently, the projected 1.91-to-one fiscal return does not represent an immediate return on public spending. Before EXPO, the model produces approximately 0.41 dinars of tax revenue for each dinar invested. By the end of the exhibition, the cumulative ratio is expected to reach approximately 0.74 dinars. The model reaches fiscal break-even only through the economic activity projected during the following decade.

Surčin development forms the basis of the long-term model

The post-event use of the EXPO site is therefore central to the assessment. The assets planned for use after August 2027 include a new Belgrade Fair, retail facilities, residential and office space and entertainment facilities. Their utilisation, operating costs and capacity to attract additional private investment are incorporated into the longer-term economic projections. Tourism is another major component of the model.

Louis Berger estimates that approximately 1.65 million foreign visitors will come to Serbia during the three-month EXPO period from 15 May to 15 August 2027. Around 522,000 are expected to be day visitors, with average spending of approximately €103. A further 1.13 million foreign visitors are projected to stay in Serbia for an average of approximately 3.5 days. The model assumes average daily spending of about €137 for conventional leisure visitors and €468 for business visitors.

Approximately 3,200 delegates are expected to stay substantially longer, with projected average daily expenditure of around €250. EXPO organisers separately describe the event as a 93-day exhibition expected to generate approximately 4.1 million visits, with participation confirmed by 139 international participants.

Tourism projected to generate €3.22 billion in value

Louis Berger attributes approximately €3.22 billion of economic value to tourism through 2037, compared with around €4.04 billion generated by capital investment. Tourism is expected to produce approximately €1.79 billion in tax revenue, compared with around €1.27 billion associated with capital investment. The assessment assumes that an additional 2.3 million foreign visitors will visit the exhibition complex and related facilities between 2028 and 2037.

The long-term projection therefore extends beyond the three-month event and incorporates continued visitor activity at the site during the decade following EXPO. Surčin is positioned within the model as the main location through which the post-event economic activity would be sustained. The district is close to Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport, motorway infrastructure and a future rail connection. The planned concentration of exhibition, commercial, residential and entertainment space is expected to create additional demand for hotels and other visitor-related businesses.

Hotel capacity expands ahead of EXPO

Hotel investment represents one of the areas where private capital is expected to respond to the event. Belgrade’s hospitality market is undergoing a new investment cycle involving major hotel renovations and projects aimed at higher-value international visitors. The additional accommodation capacity is incorporated into the EXPO tourism model and is expected to support visitor spending during the exhibition. The assessment also includes the continued operation of tourism-related assets during the post-2027 period. The longer-term projections consequently depend on sustained activity after the exceptional visitor demand associated with the exhibition has ended.

Public finances provide the wider investment framework

The EXPO programme is being implemented alongside Serbia’s broader public-investment programme. The 2026 state budget projects revenues of approximately RSD2.415 trillion, expenditure of around RSD2.752 trillion and a fiscal deficit equivalent to 3% of GDP. Public investment is concentrated in transport infrastructure, defence and EXPO-related projects.

Serbia’s Fiscal Council expects public debt to remain broadly on a declining path relative to GDP, from approximately 44.7% of GDP at the end of 2025 towards around 43.9% by 2029, assuming the planned fiscal framework is maintained. The Fiscal Council has also identified weaknesses in the management of major public investment projects. Its latest assessment of the fiscal strategy says the government continues to provide insufficient information about the sectoral composition and development of capital expenditure and notes that costs on some major projects have exceeded contracted amounts by as much as 80%.

These cost developments are relevant to the projected EXPO fiscal return because the €2 billion public-investment figure forms the denominator of the 1.91-to-one calculation. Additional infrastructure spending, operating costs or cost overruns would increase the investment base and consequently reduce the projected fiscal ratio.

Financing costs affect the value of future tax receipts

The projected tax revenue is also distributed over more than a decade. Approximately €2.33 billion of the €3.82 billion in cumulative tax receipts is expected only after 2027. Public investment financed through borrowing also generates interest costs, while Serbia’s financing costs remain above those of core euro-area sovereigns.

The Fiscal Council has warned that elevated interest rates reduce fiscal room. The €3.82 billion projection therefore represents nominal cumulative tax receipts rather than an immediate financial return of 91% on the €2 billion public investment. The value of future receipts is affected by the timing of those revenues, while financing, maintenance and future capital requirements also form part of the longer-term investment economics. The assessment assumes that €1.83 billion in private investment will complement state spending. This private capital is expected to support hotels, offices, retail, residential development, logistics and tourism facilities around the EXPO infrastructure.

EXPO investment forms part of a wider capital cycle

EXPO 2027 is being delivered alongside Serbia’s broader motorway, railway, energy and urban infrastructure programme. The simultaneous implementation of multiple large projects contributes to the wider investment cycle but also creates demand for construction labour, materials and contractor capacity. Serbia’s economy is approaching €100 billion in nominal annual GDP, while the combined €3.8 billion public-private EXPO investment envelope represents a significant investment programme spread across several years.

The programme is expected to generate activity in construction, engineering, building materials, transportation, hospitality and professional services, alongside tax revenues from the resulting economic activity. The economic impact assessment distinguishes between the temporary activity generated during construction and the longer-term value generated by continued use of the resulting infrastructure and facilities.

International participation and long-term site use

The exhibition has confirmed participation from 139 international participants. Serbia won the right to host the specialised exhibition in 2023 after competing bids from the United States, Spain, Thailand and Argentina. The assessment incorporates visitor spending and the expected economic activity associated with the international participation. Louis Berger was selected to prepare the impact study in September 2025 under a contract worth approximately RSD68.9 million including tax.

The consultancy’s assessment covers economic, social and environmental effects from 2023 through 2037, rather than limiting its calculations to the period of the exhibition itself. Under the model, the state’s direct EXPO investment is approximately €2 billion, complemented by €1.83 billion of projected private investment. Together, these investments are expected to generate approximately €9.1 billion in additional economic value through 2037 and €3.82 billion in cumulative tax revenue.

Of the projected economic value, approximately €5.43 billion is expected to arise between 2028 and 2037, while €2.33 billion of tax revenue is also projected for that post-EXPO period. The exhibition is scheduled to close on 15 August 2027, leaving the Surčin development, its exhibition facilities, commercial assets and supporting infrastructure as the basis for the economic activity incorporated into the assessment through 2037.