Serbia’s tourism industry is set to take on a larger role in the country’s economic performance in 2027, with Expo 2027 expected to bring additional foreign visitors and increase exports of tourism and business services. The event is incorporated into the wider economic outlook, with net exports projected to add approximately 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth in 2027. Foreign visitor spending contributes to the external sector because tourism receipts are recorded as service exports.
Services overall are expected to provide approximately 3.2 percentage points of GDP growth in 2027, up from 2.1 percentage points in 2026. The contribution is then projected to moderate to around 2.2 percentage points in 2028, making 2027 a distinct peak associated with the Expo cycle.
Tourism demand expands ahead of Expo
The tourism sector had already been gaining momentum in 2026, as increases in visitor arrivals and overnight stays supported broader services activity. Expo 2027 is expected to concentrate additional demand across hotels, restaurants, airlines, transport operators and event-service companies. The increase in international visitors is expected to affect both domestic business activity and Serbia’s export performance through higher spending by foreign guests. The expansion in service receipts is also reflected in the external-sector outlook. Serbia’s current-account deficit is projected to decline towards 3% of GDP in 2027, with Expo-related tourism and other service revenues contributing to the expected improvement.
Labour and capacity constraints face hospitality operators
The expected increase in demand comes as the services industry faces capacity pressures. Labour availability remains tight, wages are rising rapidly and service inflation is still elevated, creating cost pressures for companies operating in tourism and hospitality. Hotels and other hospitality businesses may therefore see stronger occupancy and revenue alongside increases in labour and operating expenses. The ability to accommodate additional demand will depend on available capacity and workforce resources. The temporary nature of Expo 2027 also creates a planning issue for businesses investing in additional capacity. Companies expanding facilities or operations need to distinguish between demand expected to remain after the event and activity generated specifically by the 2027 Expo cycle.
