Serbia’s e-commerce sector is experiencing significant growth, with projections indicating a potential for double-digit expansion through 2028. This growth is driven by an increasingly digital-savvy consumer base and ongoing improvements in infrastructure. The market is expected to reach approximately $5.04 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.89%. In 2025, e-commerce sales were estimated at around $916 million, with anticipated gains of 5-10% in 2026.
In early 2026, retail sales across Serbia increased by 4.8% year on year, highlighting the expanding landscape of both physical and online retail. The dominance of business-to-consumer (B2C) sales, which account for over 90% of the market, is complemented by a growing business-to-business (B2B) segment that is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.55%. Key contributors to this momentum include foreign direct investment (FDI) from China and Europe, as well as a moderating inflation rate of 4.6%.
Several factors are driving this growth in e-commerce. A notable adoption of mobile commerce exceeding 70%, combined with high internet speeds averaging over 70 Mbps, has facilitated online shopping. Social media platforms are also contributing to increased sales among younger demographics in sectors such as fashion, electronics, and beauty. The rise in consumer incomes, next-day delivery options, and the implementation of National Instant Payments have collectively boosted transaction volumes to approximately 110.6 million in 2025.
Optimistic forecasts suggest that advancements in artificial intelligence personalization, buy now pay later (BNPL) financing options, and omnichannel strategies could yield a CAGR of between 14-22%. Additionally, the development of B2B procurement platforms and logistics corridors is expected to enhance operational scalability, particularly as Serbia progresses toward European Union membership which may unlock further funding and market access.
However, the sector faces several challenges that could impede its rapid growth. Logistics issues remain a primary concern, with delays in rural areas and inefficiencies in last-mile delivery increasing operational costs. Supply chains are under pressure from rising volumes, while bureaucratic hurdles and customs complications contribute additional red tape.
Economic factors such as an inflation rate projected at 5.2% in 2026 may also dampen consumer spending power. Furthermore, competition from physical retail sectors is prompting a shift towards more sustainable business models. Delays in judicial processes and setbacks in growth plans could further hinder investment prospects.
To address these logistics challenges effectively, businesses are encouraged to collaborate with local third-party logistics providers familiar with regional dynamics for warehousing and inventory management solutions. Implementing warehouse management systems (WMS), route optimization tools, and real-time tracking can streamline operations. Automating customs documentation and integrating multiple carriers can facilitate smoother international transactions.
Establishing regional distribution hubs and securing bulk shipping agreements while optimizing packaging solutions will be essential for meeting delivery timelines and reducing costs as Serbia’s e-commerce landscape continues to evolve through 2028.
