Serbia’s goods exports rose 8.9% to 26.89 billion euros in January-September 2026, increasing pressure on electricity-intensive manufacturers to sustain their competitiveness. The test combines commercially acceptable power prices and dependable supply with the ability to provide emissions and input-origin records to European Union customers.
The Statistical Office reported that Serbian manufacturing output increased 5.1% in September from a year earlier, while output in electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply fell 7.2%. Total industrial production rose 3.2% in September but was up only 0.5% over January-September.
Manufacturers face supply and price risks
The production figures describe changes in output, not electricity-market prices, and do not establish that power shortages caused any particular factory’s performance. But steel mills, aluminium processors, cement plants and large component manufacturers need reliable electricity as well as prices that make production commercially viable.
Short interruptions, voltage problems, variable balancing costs and uncertainty over future supply contracts can affect production schedules and export deliveries, even when average electricity prices appear manageable. The financial exposure has distinct layers: the energy price at the factory gate; interruptions, imbalance charges and fuel or network constraints; and the supplier’s ability to document input emissions and origin to a standard EU customers accept.
Those factors can affect margins in different ways and should not be collapsed into a single carbon-cost estimate. At the MEPS 2026 conference, the Serbian Chamber of Commerce warned that European trade restrictions and unresolved energy-security questions could complicate Serbia’s external economic position. The role of imported fossil fuels was among the risks raised.
For manufacturers planning investment over a decade or more, stability in electricity and fuel supply matters alongside the latest monthly export figures. A technically efficient production line may still be commercially weak if its energy contract leaves it exposed to uncontrolled prices or an EU customer cannot obtain required carbon data.
CBAM makes emissions records relevant
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) definitive regime began on January 1, 2026. Electricity is one of six sectors covered, alongside selected goods including iron and steel, aluminium and cement.
The EU importer or authorised declarant holds the relevant legal obligations. However, suppliers outside the bloc may need to provide emissions information, generation evidence and contractual records if an importer seeks to use actual rather than default values under applicable rules.
A renewable electricity purchase agreement alone does not establish that an industrial export or electricity shipment qualifies for a particular CBAM emissions treatment. That depends on the applicable legal methodology, physical and contractual links, monitoring data and verification requirements. Evidence must match the product and reporting period being claimed, while unsupported statements about green power can create compliance risks for buyers.
The requirements differ by customer: a domestic buyer may focus mainly on product price and reliable delivery, while an EU importer of covered goods must also assess relevant CBAM obligations. Suppliers serving both markets need cost models that allocate documentation, verification and contractual expenses without assuming that every tonne or megawatt-hour faces the same carbon charge.
Contracts and data affect investment decisions
Banks financing industrial expansion should incorporate energy supply, prices and carbon data into credit appraisals. Secure supply agreements, metering systems, clear data ownership and independently checked emissions records can support bankability and customer confidence.
Industrial buyers can compare fixed-price supply, indexed procurement and bilateral power-purchase arrangements against a transparent risk budget. A long-term contract may reduce one kind of price exposure while introducing credit, volume or shape risk. The right procurement model depends on consumption patterns, delivered-supply reliability and counterparties’ financial strength, rather than a general preference for one approach.
Companies expanding low-carbon production can design evidence systems alongside the plant, with auditable controls for metering points, production records, precursor inputs and emissions calculations. Building those systems during development reduces the risk of reconstructing years of operational data after a customer or verifier requests it. Metering and production records can also show whether process changes are reducing energy intensity.
A competitiveness programme would combine grid and generation investment with energy-efficiency upgrades, improved industrial metering, credible contracting and export-oriented environmental reporting. Power-market reform alone would not resolve all trade challenges, and compliance work would not replace physical supply infrastructure. Serbia’s export gains offer a starting point, but manufacturers still need to turn stronger sales into durable capacity while controlling energy costs and meeting the documentation standards of their largest external market.
