Serbia’s next investment gains should come from projects that raise technology, productivity and local value added, rather than from maximising headline foreign direct investment totals. At the MEPS 2026 conference, a representative of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce described FDI as broadly similar to the previous year’s level. Foreign investment remains central to Serbia’s export model, but the conference discussion stressed that a single annual comparison does not show its economic effects.
FDI can include equity used to build facilities, earnings retained in existing operations and loans between companies. These forms can have different effects on jobs, productivity and domestic suppliers, according to the discussion. Greenfield projects, factory expansions, acquisitions and reinvested earnings also need to be assessed separately when evaluating investment incentives and their longer-term fiscal return.
The National Bank of Serbia’s balance-of-payments categories distinguish between FDI concepts and reporting periods. Gross inflows, net inflows and changes in direct-investment liabilities are separate measures and cannot be treated as interchangeable totals. The distinction matters when assessing whether investment figures reflect new projects or other forms of capital.
Serbia exported 26.89 billion euros worth of goods in January-September, an 8.9% increase year on year, while imports rose 4.9% from the same period a year earlier. The stronger trade figures provide a partial positive signal, but export sales do not measure new foreign capital or establish whether investors are announcing additional projects rather than using capacity installed in earlier years.
MEPS discussions noted that Serbia offers foreign manufacturers access to regional suppliers, a skilled workforce and proximity to European customers. Investment decisions also depend on trade conditions, infrastructure, political and regulatory certainty, and the ability to source energy at a sustainable cost. Participants raised concerns about Europe’s evolving industrial policies and the need for a clearer longer-term path for integration.
Assessing investment quality also means examining whether projects buy inputs locally, train technical workers, develop domestic management and remain competitive without recurring public subsidies. The policy message was that Serbia should support foreign investors alongside the domestic firms that supply them. The country’s next competitive step was framed as increasing the technology, productivity and local value added associated with each major investment.
