Serbia’s investment outlook for 2027 combines expanding exports, a well-capitalised banking sector and substantial public spending with mounting pressure from energy costs, labour availability and infrastructure delivery.
The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) forecasts economic growth of 3.2% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, while indicating that this year’s expansion could exceed its August projection.
Export Growth and Banking Capacity Support Investment
Exports remain an important source of economic momentum. Merchandise exports increased by 9.3% in the first eight months of 2026, while exports of services rose by 6.8%.
Serbia’s banking sector provides another source of financing capacity. Total bank assets reached €63.8 billion, gross lending exceeded €40 billion, and deposits approached €49 billion. Capital adequacy remained close to 20%, while non-performing loans accounted for approximately 2%.
Public Investment and Fiscal Position
The government continues to implement a substantial infrastructure investment programme. At the same time, public debt stood at around 43.6% of GDP, providing Serbia with greater fiscal room than many highly indebted European economies.
These conditions support investment activity, but the next phase of growth will increasingly depend on the availability and cost of essential inputs, as well as the timely execution of infrastructure projects.
Energy and Labour Costs Reshape Business Conditions
Energy production declined in 2026, while energy-price shocks continued to sustain inflation risks. The NBS maintained its key interest rate at 5.75%.
Labour-market conditions are also changing. Formal employment has fallen even as real wages have continued to rise rapidly, increasing cost pressures for businesses that depend on labour-intensive production.
Productivity and Energy Efficiency Gain Importance
These developments are changing the factors that determine investment competitiveness. Projects relying primarily on inexpensive labour or energy face a different cost environment, while investments focused on automation, productivity, export capacity and energy efficiency become increasingly relevant.
The scale of infrastructure spending associated with Expo 2027 will form part of Serbia’s investment cycle, alongside the longer-term question of whether new infrastructure and productive capacity can support economic activity beyond the event.
