Serbia’s investment activity is expected to accelerate as public infrastructure expenditure and private-sector projects support economic expansion, with the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) forecasting GDP growth of 4.5% in 2027.
The central bank projects fixed investment to increase by 3.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027, following growth of just 1.7% in 2025. Domestic demand, encompassing household consumption and investment, is expected to remain the main driver of economic activity.
Government Capital Expenditure Supports Investment Pipeline
The government’s “Leap into the Future – Serbia Expo 2027” programme is a major component of the investment cycle, alongside ongoing infrastructure development.
Public capital expenditure totalled RSD 440.2 billion, or approximately €3.8 billion, in January-August 2026. This represented an increase of almost RSD 98 billion compared with the same period a year earlier and amounted to 61.3% of the level envisaged under the fiscal strategy.
Infrastructure Spending Creates Opportunities Across Industries
The investment programme is generating demand across several business sectors, including engineering, transport, equipment supply, financial services and project management. Infrastructure improvements could also strengthen the commercial viability of industrial and logistics investments by addressing existing capacity constraints.
Banks are entering this investment cycle with substantial liquidity and capital strength, providing scope for infrastructure suppliers, developers and exporters to seek financing from domestic institutions alongside international lenders.
Investment Quality and Long-Term Capacity
The economic impact of the investment programme will depend on how effectively capital expenditure strengthens productive capacity. Projects improving transport networks, energy infrastructure, logistics capacity and industrial productivity could contribute to higher potential economic growth.
Expenditure that primarily boosts short-term consumption would have a more limited structural effect. The expansion expected in 2027 will therefore coincide with the test of whether Serbia’s public investment programme can support lasting private-sector capacity after Expo-related activity reaches its peak.
