Serbia’s external trade position strengthened in 2026 as exports of goods and services expanded faster than imports, narrowing the current-account deficit and improving the country’s external financing outlook. The current-account deficit reached €2.1 billion in January-August, representing an improvement of €343 million compared with the corresponding period of 2025.
Exports of goods and services rose by 8.5% year on year, exceeding the 6.4% increase in imports. As a result, the trade deficit declined to 3.2% of GDP in the first half of 2026, compared with an average of 4.7% during 2023-2025.
NBS Revises External Deficit Forecast
The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) expects the current-account deficit to amount to approximately 4% of GDP in 2026, significantly below its previous projection. The central bank forecasts a further reduction to around 3% of GDP in 2027.
The improvement comes as Serbia continues to require substantial imports of equipment, energy and intermediate goods to support its investment-intensive economy. However, the latest adjustment has coincided with continued economic growth and rising exports, rather than being driven primarily by weaker domestic demand.
Manufacturing and Services Support Export Performance
Manufacturing, information and communications technology (ICT), and business services are playing an increasingly important role in Serbia’s external performance. Export capacity has also benefited from investments made in previous years.
Foreign direct investment that expands production for export markets can support the external position through both initial capital inflows and subsequent export revenues. The relationship between investment and export capacity is therefore becoming an increasingly important factor in Serbia’s external economic balance.
Although the country continues to record an external deficit, stronger exports, services surpluses and substantial foreign exchange reserves have improved its external financing position compared with previous investment cycles.
