Serbia’s economy is expected to continue expanding in 2026, although industrial production is forecast to provide limited support to overall growth, according to the July/August MAT forecast.
The forecast projects real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026, supported by services, household consumption, exports and fiscal activity. At the same time, total industrial production is expected to increase by only 0.5%, while manufacturing output is projected to decline by 1.0%. The combination points to an economy growing at a solid pace without a broad manufacturing-driven expansion.
Consumption and Exports Remain Key Growth Drivers
The structure of projected growth places greater importance on domestic demand, services, trade activity and selected export sectors. Real retail turnover is expected to rise by 5.5%, supported by wage growth and lower inflation compared with previous peak periods. Household consumption remains one of the main stabilising factors in the 2026 outlook.
Exports are forecast to increase by 7.0%, exceeding projected import growth of 3.5%. The weaker manufacturing outlook indicates that export gains are likely to remain concentrated in specific sectors rather than reflecting a broad industrial recovery.
Manufacturing Weakness Affects Investment Planning
The limited manufacturing contribution has implications for banks, industrial investors and companies planning expansion. Slower manufacturing growth can influence demand for logistics facilities, industrial parks, equipment financing, working-capital lending, energy consumption arrangements and supply-chain investment. Industrial performance also affects employment quality, productivity development and public revenue generation.
Sector Selection Becomes More Important for Investors
The 2026 outlook does not remove Serbia’s position as a growth market, but it increases the importance of sector-specific assessment. Areas with potential structural support include automotive supply chains, selected machinery segments, information and communications technology services, retail infrastructure, logistics and energy flexibility.
Manufacturing segments facing weaker demand require closer evaluation of market conditions, energy costs, European Union trade requirements and working-capital resilience. Serbia’s projected growth remains positive, but the composition of expansion depends on a smaller number of economic drivers than a broad industrial cycle would provide.
