Serbia’s renewable-energy development pipeline is facing a longer grid-connection timetable after regulatory changes shifted the preparation of new connection studies for large wind and solar projects to September-December 2029. The change primarily affects projects that have not yet entered the relevant grid-connection process, while projects with existing studies or sufficient progress can continue toward permitting, financing and construction.
The measure does not constitute a general suspension of renewable-energy development. Serbia continues to advance projects already positioned within the connection framework, alongside investment by EPS and growth in industrial and prosumer solar capacity.
Renewable capacity continues to expand
Serbia remains committed to adding at least 3.5 GW of new renewable capacity, supported by projects already under development. Government figures show that combined wind and solar capacity has risen from about 400 MW to more than 1.3 GW and could approach 1.5 GW. The next stage of development will depend on how the existing project pipeline progresses and when additional projects can enter the transmission connection process.
More than 11 GW is already in the connection process
The Serbian transmission system operator EMS has reported around 11 GW of wind and solar projects in the transmission connection process. More than 12 GW of projects have also been incorporated into transmission-network development modelling. The volume of proposed capacity significantly exceeds what the power system can absorb in the near term.
The current approach prioritises projects already progressing through the system before a new large group of developments enters the connection process. Grid integration also requires sufficient transmission infrastructure, balancing resources, storage and operational flexibility to manage increasing volumes of intermittent generation. The regulatory change is also intended to limit the reservation of scarce grid capacity by projects with limited prospects of reaching construction while more advanced developments wait for connection.
Delayed studies extend development timelines
Renewable projects typically require several years to coordinate site preparation, planning, environmental procedures, land rights, grid studies, engineering, financing and equipment procurement before reaching financial close. Projects unable to secure connection studies until late 2029 would only subsequently be able to progress through later permitting, financing and construction stages. For some developments, this could push commercial operation into the 2030s. The timing creates a distinction between Serbia’s current pipeline and the projects that could replace it once advanced developments are completed.
Existing auction projects remain in development
Serbia’s first two renewable-energy auctions supported 17 wind and solar projects with approximately 1.2 GW of capacity, representing estimated investment of nearly €1.5 billion. Nine of those projects are already connected, while the remaining projects could contribute around 784 MW.
The government expects the existing private-sector pipeline to increase combined wind and solar capacity to at least 2.3 GW. Prosumer installations could provide an additional 300 MW. EPS is also expanding its renewable portfolio and has created opportunities to acquire or cooperate on privately developed renewable projects. These developments provide Serbia with a substantial project pipeline, while the availability of replacement projects depends on future access to the grid-connection process.
Transmission capacity is becoming a key investment constraint
Serbia’s renewable market has moved from an earlier focus on attracting capital and developing projects toward constraints involving grid availability, connection timing, transmission reinforcement, balancing capacity and storage. The country continues to rely heavily on conventional generation. Total electricity production reached about 34.3 TWh, with coal-fired generation accounting for approximately 63.7%, hydropower 25%, wind 4.3% and solar less than 1%.
Additional wind and solar capacity is therefore required to diversify the electricity generation mix while meeting rising demand and reducing reliance on coal. At the same time, generation projects depend on transmission infrastructure and a realistic connection timetable. Grid access is consequently an important consideration for projects seeking financing and progressing toward financial close.
Renewable pipeline faces a sequencing challenge
Serbia currently has projects progressing through the connection system as well as another group awaiting access to the process. The government’s approach gives priority to the existing pipeline while allowing time for EMS to strengthen the network and reduce speculative reservations of connection capacity. Moving new connection studies to late 2029, however, compresses the development period available for projects expected to follow the current construction pipeline. The timing could result in strong renewable construction followed by a potential shortage of sufficiently advanced replacement projects if new developments cannot progress through the connection process early enough.
