Annual inflation in Serbia eased to 3.5% in May 2026, while consumer prices rose by 0.3% versus April, according to the latest figures from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. The data keep inflation within the National Bank of Serbia’s target corridor. The release also points to a continued cooling of the sharp inflationary pressures recorded during 2022–2024.
The May outcome followed an annual inflation rate of 3.3% in April. Monthly price growth of 0.3% indicates a moderate pace of inflation compared with the higher rates seen during the peak phase of the inflation cycle. The figures were published amid volatility in global energy and commodity markets.
National Bank outlook for inflation near medium-term target
For policymakers, the latest reading is consistent with a disinflation process that remains broadly intact. The National Bank of Serbia has said inflation is expected to stay close to its medium-term target of 3% ±1.5 percentage points. Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković also indicated that average inflation for 2026 is projected at around 3.6%.
The direction of inflation is closely watched because it affects interest-rate expectations, sovereign borrowing costs and corporate financing conditions. Over the past two years, Serbia’s monetary authorities have sought to balance curbing inflation with support for economic growth. Growth has been influenced by weaker European demand and broader geopolitical uncertainties.
Categories contributing to price pressure
While headline inflation remains relatively low by regional standards, several underlying categories continue to show upward pressure. Housing and utility costs, transport expenses and hospitality services have been among the stronger contributors in recent months. These movements reflect both domestic demand and higher international energy costs.
As price dynamics evolve, analysts are monitoring whether the current level will change further during later stages of the year. They expect inflation to remain contained but not necessarily decline further. Factors cited include rising global energy prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and stronger domestic consumption linked to infrastructure spending during the second half of 2026.
Medium-term forecasts from international institutions
International institutions including the IMF continue to forecast Serbian inflation around 3.5%–5% over the medium term. The outlook is described as dependent largely on developments in global commodity and energy markets. This range aligns with expectations that price growth will stay within a relatively narrow band rather than return to earlier double-digit levels.
For households and businesses, the May reading indicates a period of comparatively steadier prices compared with the double-digit inflation rates seen only a few years earlier. Some sectors still face cost pressures, but Serbia has so far avoided renewed acceleration observed in some European economies after recent energy market disruptions.
