Serbia’s industrial production data for the first quarter of 2026 show a divided performance across sectors, with gains in capital goods and selected manufacturing categories offset by declines in energy, mining and parts of heavy industry.
- Capital goods and automotive manufacturing drive growth segments
- Manufacturing branches show concentrated pockets of expansion
- Energy and heavy industry remain under pressure
- April data suggest potential stabilization
- Outlook driven by selective manufacturing strength
- Industrial structure increasingly concentrated in high-value segments
Total industrial production fell by 0.8% year-on-year in Q1 2026, including a 0.4% decline in manufacturing, a 3.2% drop in mining, and a 0.9% decrease in electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply. The headline figures indicate overall weakness, while underlying branch-level data show uneven sector performance.
Capital goods and automotive manufacturing drive growth segments
Within industrial categories, capital goods production increased by 12.9%, contrasting with declines in other major segments. Energy production fell by 7.1%, while durable consumer goods declined by 11.7% over the same period.
The data indicate divergence within Serbia’s industrial base, with expansion in equipment and vehicle-related production alongside contraction in energy-intensive and commodity-linked sectors.
Manufacturing branches show concentrated pockets of expansion
Out of 24 manufacturing branches, only nine recorded growth in Q1 2026, representing 25.6% of total industrial output. Growth was led by motor vehicles and trailers, which increased by 51.5%, followed by rubber and plastic products, which rose by 5.3%, and basic pharmaceutical products, which increased by 6.2%.
At the same time, several major industrial segments recorded declines. Food products fell by 1.4%, coke and refined petroleum products dropped by 21.7%, and fabricated metal products declined by 4.1%. The distribution highlights concentration of growth in a limited number of industries while broader manufacturing output remains uneven.
Energy and heavy industry remain under pressure
Energy-related output and resource-intensive sectors continued to weigh on overall industrial performance. Declines in electricity, gas and related energy supply, along with reduced mining output, contributed to weaker aggregate results. The contraction in refined petroleum products and metals further reinforced pressure in heavy industry segments.
The structure indicates that energy-intensive production remains a key constraint on broader industrial expansion.
April data suggest potential stabilization
Preliminary figures for April 2026 show industrial production increasing by 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a possible short-term improvement following first-quarter weakness. The single-month data is not sufficient to confirm a sustained recovery trend across the industrial sector.
Outlook driven by selective manufacturing strength
Forecasts for 2026 place Serbian industrial production growth in a range of 1.0% to 2.5%, supported primarily by automotive supply chains, electrical equipment, rubber and plastics, pharmaceuticals and capital goods exports.
A weaker scenario would see production remaining broadly flat if energy output, mining and metals continue to decline. An upside scenario would depend on stronger European Union demand, lower energy volatility and recovery in food and metal-processing industries.
Industrial structure increasingly concentrated in high-value segments
The data indicate that Serbia’s industrial performance is becoming increasingly dependent on selected high-value manufacturing segments rather than broad-based expansion. Automotive-related production, capital goods, pharmaceuticals and plastics represent the strongest areas of output growth, while energy, mining and heavy industry continue to act as constraints on overall industrial performance.
