MAT projects limited industrial growth in Serbia during 2026, with manufacturing expected to decline even as retail activity, goods trade and consumer prices rise.
Total industrial production is forecast to increase by 0.5%, while manufacturing is projected to fall by 1.0%. The outlook estimates consumer-price inflation at 3.5%, real retail trade growth at 4.5%, goods export growth at 7.0% and goods import growth at 8.5%.
Domestic Demand and Services Support Activity
The forecast indicates that economic activity will be supported by consumption, services, trade and selected export sectors rather than by broad-based manufacturing expansion.
Retail trade is expected to remain positive, while goods exports and imports are both projected to increase. The anticipated decline in manufacturing would leave economic growth more reliant on domestic demand, public expenditure and individual sector-specific contributors.
Manufacturing Remains Central to Export Capacity
Manufacturing is a core part of Serbia’s export-oriented development model, bringing together foreign direct investment, industrial zones, supplier networks and demand from the European Union.
A 1.0% decline in manufacturing would affect productivity growth, export diversification and the capacity to support wage increases without adding inflationary pressure. It would also increase the importance of sectors outside manufacturing in sustaining overall economic activity.
Import Growth Exceeds Export Growth
Goods exports are forecast to grow by 7.0% in 2026, while imports are projected to rise faster, by 8.5%. Higher imports may reflect stronger investment and household consumption, but they can also widen the trade deficit when export growth does not generate sufficient value.
The difference between projected export and import growth keeps the external-balance outlook dependent on the composition of trade flows and the value added generated by exports.
Inflation Limits Scope for Monetary Easing
Consumer prices are expected to rise by 3.5% during 2026. Inflation at this level affects household purchasing power and limits the room for rapid monetary easing. The relationship between wage growth and productivity will remain relevant to price stability, particularly as Serbia’s forecast combines consumption growth with weak manufacturing performance.
Industrial Investment and Supplier Development
The 2026 outlook identifies automotive activity, energy investment, domestic supplier capacity and technology projects as factors affecting the future direction of manufacturing. With total industrial production forecast to rise only 0.5% and manufacturing expected to decline 1.0%, industrial performance remains a central component of Serbia’s broader economic and trade outlook.
