The U.S. sanctions against the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS) were postponed for the fifth time at the end of July, allowing the company to operate uninterrupted for another month. However, the looming threat of sanctions has negatively impacted NIS, which reported a net loss of 3.6 billion dinars in the first half of the year—the worst since 2020. Several foreign airlines stopped purchasing fuel from NIS at Belgrade airport, and major companies like OMV and MOL began importing petroleum products from neighboring countries instead of buying from NIS refineries.
Economists link this pressure to Western efforts to remove Russian energy influence from Serbia. Milan Kovačević, an economist, believes Serbia will eventually have to comply with Western demands to reduce Russian capital involvement in NIS. He points out that selling NIS cheaply to Russian investors over 15 years ago was a mistake, and now Serbia faces difficulties maintaining operations under sanctions threats.
Kovačević warns that Serbia’s leadership may overestimate personal relationships with major powers, which will not protect them from geopolitical pressures. He emphasizes that without action, NIS could collapse.
Goran Radosavljević, economist and professor, adds that the ongoing uncertainty over sanctions puts NIS at risk, with reputational damage spreading to regional banks and partners. While NIS remains a key player in Serbia’s market, the risk of sanctions would cause significant operational challenges.
He says the Russians are unlikely to sell NIS, as it holds political rather than financial value to them. Instead, Serbia should explore a “friendly takeover” or temporary state management model—similar to European examples where states manage Russian assets during sanctions. If that fails, a hostile takeover could be a last resort.
Radosavljević stresses that the Serbian government has yet to present a clear contingency plan (Plan B) if sanctions take effect. He calls on the state to prepare and publicly share strategies to handle possible sanctions to avoid economic shock and ensure continuity of strategic sectors dependent on NIS.
