Serbia faces a significant challenge in meeting the electricity needs of its CBAM-exposed exporters, with a green electricity gap estimated between 0.4 and 1.4 TWh annually. This gap signifies the volume of renewable electricity that exporters must source, requiring Guarantees of Origin (GOs) that can be tracked and verified against their consumption. The current residual mix for 2024 indicates that coal and lignite dominate Serbia’s energy supply at 66.60%, while hydropower contributes 23.81%, with minimal contributions from natural gas, wind, and solar. This existing energy profile underscores the necessity of additional renewable energy projects specifically designated for exporters to ensure compliance with environmental standards.
To translate the gap in TWh into necessary projects, one must consider the annual energy yield per installed megawatt, which is influenced by capacity factors. For wind energy, a conservative capacity factor of 30-35% indicates that 1 MW generates approximately 2.63 to 3.07 GWh per year. In contrast, solar energy yields about 1.31 to 1.58 GWh per year at a conservative capacity factor of 15-18%. These figures are critical for calculating the megawatt capacity required to bridge the identified gap.
If Serbia were to rely solely on wind energy to close the lower end of the gap (0.4 TWh), it would require an additional dedicated wind capacity of approximately 130 to 152 MW. Conversely, addressing the upper limit of the gap (1.4 TWh) necessitates about 456 to 532 MW of new wind capacity. Given that a typical Serbian wind project is around 150 MW, closing the lower gap could be achieved with one such project, while three to four projects would be needed for the higher gap.
In contrast, using only solar energy to address the gap presents a more complex challenge due to its lower yield per megawatt. Closing the low end (400 GWh) would require approximately 253 to 305 MW of solar capacity, while closing the high end (1,400 GWh) would necessitate around 886 to 1,069 MW. This translates into needing three solar parks at the lower end and up to eleven parks at the higher end.
A blended approach combining both wind and solar is likely more viable for Serbia’s exporters, as it mitigates risks associated with relying on a single resource type. A conservative planning split of approximately 60% from wind and 40% from solar could effectively cover the annual gap energy needs. Under this model, closing a low-end gap would require about 78 to 91 MW of wind and roughly 101 to 122 MW of solar capacity.
For the higher end of the gap under this split, approximately two wind parks (150 MW each) combined with four solar parks (100 MW each) would be needed, taking into account potential project delays and network constraints.
The financial implications for these projects are significant. For utility-scale solar installations in Serbia, CAPEX estimates range from €0.55 million to €0.85 million per MW, while onshore wind costs between €1.10 million and €1.55 million per MW. Consequently, a single solar park (100 MW) could incur costs between €55 million and €85 million, while a wind park (150 MW) may cost between €165 million and €233 million.
At the high end of project requirements for closing the gap entirely, costs could reach between €495 million and €932 million for wind-only solutions or similar figures for solar-only solutions. A blended approach would yield combined costs ranging from €496 million to €862 million.
Connection priorities also play a crucial role in addressing Serbia’s exporter gap effectively. It is essential for renewable projects to connect where grid capacity exists without risking curtailment or congestion issues that could affect reliability. The Belgrade-Danube basin is highlighted as a key area for connecting new renewable sources due to its concentration of industrial activity exposed to CBAM regulations.
Serbia’s BeoGrid 2025 program aims to enhance transmission infrastructure in this corridor, facilitating higher renewable integration and improving competitiveness for exporters by ensuring reliable delivery of contracted renewable MWh.
Additionally, diversifying solar deployment will help mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on specific corridors or resources, enhancing resilience against variability in renewable generation profiles.
Ultimately, institutional frameworks will also need to evolve alongside physical infrastructure development in order to ensure that GOs are effectively allocated to exporters rather than diluted across general supply claims. This approach is crucial for transforming Serbia’s renewable generation into a competitive advantage in light of stringent environmental regulations affecting its export markets.
In summary, Serbia’s path towards addressing its electricity exporter challenge hinges on targeted investments in renewable energy projects designed with specific allocation mechanisms for GOs that support compliance with international standards while bolstering competitiveness in global markets.
