In 2025, Serbia’s exports were significantly driven by the manufacturing sector, which constituted 87.6% of total export values. This substantial figure illustrates a notable shift in the country’s economic structure towards a manufacturing-oriented external sector, moving away from reliance on raw materials and low-value production. The total exports for Serbia reached €33.068 billion, while overall foreign trade turnover was recorded at €74.927 billion, highlighting the critical role of manufacturing in these figures.
However, this heavy reliance on manufacturing also exposes vulnerabilities within the economy. In 2025, manufacturing output grew only 1.1%, indicating that the sector’s health is crucial for maintaining export levels. The concentration of export earnings among a few strong-performing industries further underscores this dependency.
The primary sectors contributing to manufacturing export growth in 2025 included motor vehicles and trailers, which alone added €995.7 million in export value, and rubber and plastics, which contributed €405.5 million. Notably, the automotive industry accounted for 43% of the increase in manufacturing exports. Without this sector’s performance, overall manufacturing growth would have stagnated.
Automotive exports reached €4.057 billion, representing 12.3% of Serbia’s total exports and generating a trade surplus of €1.837 billion, up by 56.3% from the previous year. This surge was fueled by the commencement of electric Fiat Grande Panda production and Serbia’s increasing involvement in the European electric vehicle supply chain.
The rubber and plastics sector also showed significant growth with an export surplus of €1.099 billion, reflecting Serbia’s capabilities beyond mere assembly to include industrial materials and components linked to broader manufacturing networks.
Despite these successes, not all sectors contributed equally to export performance. While several branches like food products and machinery recorded over €100 million each in additional exports, others such as electrical equipment and apparel faced declines, revealing an uneven landscape within manufacturing.
The geographical distribution of exports reinforces this structural dependence on European markets, with the European Union accounting for 63.8% of Serbia’s total trade and Germany being the largest trading partner. Such dependencies mean that fluctuations in European industrial demand directly impact Serbian exports.
In January 2026, manufacturing PMI figures indicated a weak industrial environment across Europe, with readings below the growth threshold in key economies like Germany and Italy. This context raises concerns about the sustainability of Serbia’s export model given its strong ties to external conditions.
Moreover, certain sectors demonstrated vulnerability to geopolitical shifts and market conditions; for instance, a decline in petroleum product exports highlighted risks associated with energy security and ownership dynamics.
Despite these challenges, Serbia’s manufacturing base has allowed for a relatively resilient economy; export growth outpaced import growth by 8.4% compared to 7.2%, improving import coverage by exports to 79%. This resilience stems from a robust industrial export foundation that needs further diversification and technological enhancement to mitigate risks associated with concentrated dependencies.
To strengthen its position, Serbia faces three main challenges: diversifying its manufacturing contributions beyond dominant sectors like automotive; upgrading technological capabilities to include higher-value segments; and increasing domestic value capture through local supply chain development.
Overall, while the dominance of manufacturing in Serbian exports signifies an industrially mature economy integrated into European supply chains, it also highlights critical vulnerabilities that necessitate strategic policy considerations for future resilience and growth.
