Global energy-sector capital flows are projected to reach $3.4 trillion in 2026, an increase of 5% from 2025, as the Middle East conflict affects investment assessments across fuel supply, electricity infrastructure and decarbonisation, according to MAT.
Investment in renewables, nuclear energy, power grids, storage, low-emission fuels, energy efficiency and electrification is expected to total about $2.2 trillion. Oil, gas and coal are projected to receive around $1.2 trillion in investment.
Conflict Affects Energy and Industrial Supply Chains
MAT described the Middle East conflict as a supply-side shock affecting oil, gas, liquefied natural gas, fertilisers, sulphur, helium and aluminium. The effects extend to agriculture, manufacturing, construction and advanced technologies.
During the conflict period, Brent crude prices rose sharply, European gas prices increased and Asian LNG prices advanced. Equity markets and bond yields also responded to the developments.
Infrastructure Capacity Shapes Regional Energy Risk
Energy systems in Southeast Europe are increasingly assessed on resilience as well as generation costs. Import dependence, limited storage, constrained interconnections, hydrological exposure and insufficient balancing capacity affect regional energy risk.
Grid capacity, storage, forecasting, balancing systems and curtailment analysis are relevant components of solar and wind project development. Electricity infrastructure is becoming a separate investment category alongside generation assets.
Hormuz Transit and Middle East Damage Add to Supply Concerns
MAT reported that confidence in reliable energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz has been significantly affected and could remain fragile after the immediate conflict period.
More than 30 energy facilities in the Middle East sustained moderate or serious damage, including refineries, petrochemical plants, oil and gas production sites and parts of the Ras Laffan LNG Complex. More than 20 tankers were struck during missile and drone attacks. Reconstruction costs in the region are expected to reach tens of billions of dollars.
Capital Requirements Expand for Importing Economies
Reconstruction requirements could absorb capital otherwise directed toward infrastructure and energy projects in other markets. Importing countries also face financing needs for strategic reserves, storage facilities, alternative supply routes and domestic flexibility assets.
For Serbia and Southeast Europe, the relevant investment areas include batteries, pumped-hydro assessments, cross-border transmission capacity, grid automation, gas-storage options and renewable projects linked to industrial offtake.
Oil Investment Declines Despite Higher Producer Revenues
MAT said investment in oil supply is expected to decline for a third consecutive year to below $500 billion in 2026, despite higher producer revenues associated with increased prices.
The projected decline reflects uncertainty, long investment cycles, infrastructure bottlenecks and more cautious portfolio strategies. Energy projects increasingly combine generation capacity with grid access, storage, balancing arrangements, industrial offtake, carbon documentation and supply-disruption resilience.
