Foreign direct investment remains one of the central pillars of Serbia’s macro story, according to a National Bank of Serbia investor presentation. Between 2018 and 2025, Serbia attracted €28.4bn in total FDI. Almost 60% of that amount was directed into tradable sectors, while around €8.4bn went into manufacturing.
- FDI-linked export performance and manufacturing momentum
- From labour costs to supply-chain integration
- Current-account deficit trajectory and bank lending indicators
- Improving FDI quality and upgrading domestic value added
- Energy requirements under EU carbon rules
- Diversification of sources and external income capacity
- The 2026–2027 test for sustained tradable-sector investment
The presentation links the sector mix to export performance and external balances. FDI into tradable sectors is described as supporting exports, improving the balance of payments, deepening industrial supply chains and reducing reliance on domestic consumption. It is also cited as strengthening the sovereign credit story by creating future foreign-currency earning capacity.
FDI-linked export performance and manufacturing momentum
Goods exports rose 8.7% in 2025, despite weak demand from the EU and the region. In the first quarter of 2026, goods exports increased another 7.4% year on year. Manufacturing exports grew by 9.1% over the same period.
Motor vehicle exports expanded by 59.0%, reflecting the role of automotive-linked supply chains and foreign investors in Serbia’s industrial transformation. The investor presentation also points to a shift in Serbia’s FDI profile toward more complex manufacturing and related activities.
From labour costs to supply-chain integration
The documented change includes movement toward automotive components, machinery, electronics, business services, research-linked activities and technical services. Labour cost remains relevant in this context, but other factors are listed as more durable advantages. These include location, supplier integration, logistics access, state support, skills, trade links and macro stability.
The same framework is used to describe how tradable-sector investment affects external financing needs for the sovereign. FDI into tradables is presented as contributing to financing the current-account deficit while raising future export capacity.
Current-account deficit trajectory and bank lending indicators
Serbia’s current-account deficit was 0.8% of GDP in the first quarter of 2026. The NBS expects it to widen to 5.9% of GDP for the full year as energy, investment and income-driven imports increase. A stronger tradable-sector base is described as making that widening less risky.
The investor presentation also applies similar reasoning to banks’ credit quality assessment. Companies integrated into export supply chains are described as often stronger borrowers than firms dependent only on domestic demand, including through foreign-currency revenues, long-term contracts, parent-company support or higher productivity.
NBS data show corporate lending growth in March 2026. Corporate loans increased by 12.0% year on year, investment loans rose by 12.5%, and liquidity and working-capital loans grew by 13.5%. The focus for the next phase is whether corporate lending supports FDI-linked supplier networks, domestic subcontractors, logistics, energy efficiency and export capacity.
Improving FDI quality and upgrading domestic value added
The presentation highlights that improving FDI quality remains a key requirement for Serbia’s next stage. It states that attracting foreign capital has been successful but that raising domestic value added is the next step. That includes more local suppliers, more engineering content and more domestic inputs where feasible.
The same section lists stronger vocational and technical skills, better infrastructure, cleaner energy supply and higher productivity within Serbian-owned companies connected to foreign investors. Energy is also described as becoming increasingly important for export-oriented investors’ decisions.
Energy requirements under EU carbon rules
The investor presentation says export-oriented investors increasingly focus on electricity reliability, price stability, renewable power access and carbon documentation. It adds that as EU carbon policy tightens through CBAM and related industrial rules, Serbia’s FDI competitiveness will depend not only on wages and tax incentives but also on its ability to provide bankable, traceable and competitive energy supply.
Diversification of sources and external income capacity
The geographical diversification of FDI is also described as relevant for risk management. The EU remains central in the investor mix, while Asian investors have become more visible. Diversification can reduce dependence on a single investment source but requires managing different regulatory frameworks, technology approaches and supply-chain models.
The presentation frames the preferred outcome as embedding Serbia into higher-value export chains with durable demand rather than simply increasing inflows from more countries. It also links this structure to an investment-grade narrative used by rating agencies when assessing public debt, reserves, inflation and fiscal policy alongside external income generation capacity.
The 2026–2027 test for sustained tradable-sector investment
The final section identifies 2026–2027 as a test period for whether new investment continues the established pattern. Expo-linked infrastructure is described as potentially supporting growth during the event cycle. The deeper credit story is said to depend on tradable-sector investment that remains productive after that cycle ends.
The investor presentation concludes that Serbia has built a stronger FDI platform and that the next step is turning foreign investment into domestic industrial depth.
