The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) links the Expo 2027 cycle with macroeconomic assumptions for the coming two years, including growth support, infrastructure execution, services exports and domestic demand. The NBS investor presentation frames Expo-related projects as part of the country’s investment story and sovereign-credit narrative.
- GDP projections and the role of Expo-linked projects
- Fiscal spending, deficits and public debt
- Investment priorities and construction contribution in early 2026
- External balance expectations for 2026-2027
- Credit growth, labour market conditions and inflation path
- Sovereign risk considerations tied to delivery
In its baseline outlook, the NBS expects Serbia’s GDP to rise by 3.0% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. The acceleration in 2027 is associated partly with implementation under the “Leap into the Future – Serbia Expo 2027” programme and an expected boost to services.
GDP projections and the role of Expo-linked projects
The NBS presentation ties the projected 2027 pickup to the execution of programme projects rather than only to tourism promotion. It also presents Expo as a measure of public investment efficiency within the broader macro framework.
Alongside the growth profile, the NBS highlights a sustained investment push reflected in public spending figures. Capital expenditure reached RSD 715bn in 2025, equivalent to 6.9% of GDP.
Fiscal spending, deficits and public debt
The fiscal outlook includes deficits of 3.0% of GDP for both 2026 and 2027, before narrowing to 2.5% in 2028. General government debt is described as moderate, at 42.0% of GDP at the end of March 2026.
The NBS assessment indicates that Serbia has room to invest, while the spending quality remains a key factor for outcomes tied to the Expo cycle. The investment case is presented as stronger when projects produce durable capacity rather than temporary activity.
Investment priorities and construction contribution in early 2026
The NBS lists potential durable outcomes from Expo-related projects including transport infrastructure, utilities, hospitality capacity, urban upgrades, logistics improvements, digital systems and better public-service delivery. It also notes that these areas can support productivity and private investment alongside long-term growth potential.
The presentation contrasts this with a scenario where activity remains concentrated in a short construction boom that lifts imports, wages and public spending without lasting economic returns. It also points to timing issues, noting that construction had not yet become a strong growth driver in the first quarter of 2026.
For Q1 2026, the NBS says services led growth while industry and construction made slightly negative contributions. This is presented as consistent with an Expo-linked narrative that depends on an acceleration during the execution phase if the projected 2027 growth pickup is to fully materialise.
External balance expectations for 2026-2027
The external-balance impact is described through import dynamics typically associated with large infrastructure and event-related investment. Such spending can raise imports of machinery, materials, equipment, vehicles and services.
The NBS expects Serbia’s current-account deficit to widen to 5.9% of GDP in 2026, attributed partly to investment needs and stronger disposable income. It also expects the deficit to narrow to 4.0% of GDP in 2027, supported by higher services exports connected to Expo.
The outlook for services receipts is linked to factors including visitor numbers, hotel capacity, transport links, event delivery and international promotion . The assumption is tied directly to how Expo-related activity translates into exportable services demand.
Credit growth, labour market conditions and inflation path
The banking sector is described as exposed indirectly through demand channels associated with Expo-related activity. Credit growth accelerated to 16.9% year on year, with corporate loans up 12.0% and household loans up 20.9%.
The NBS notes that sectors such as construction, trade, transport, hospitality and real estate could benefit from demand related to Expo implementation . At the same time, it says banks would need to differentiate between projects generating durable cash flows and those relying on temporary event-driven revenue.
The labour market is identified as another constraint within the macro picture. Average net wages rose by 11.2%% nominally and by 8.5%% in real terms in January–February 2026, supporting consumption.
However, formal employment fell by 0.4%% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. The NBS says that if Expo-related investment increases hiring needs across construction workers, engineers, hospitality staff, transport workers and service employees, wage pressure could remain elevated.
This wage dynamic is noted alongside inflation developments that are moving into a more sensitive phase. Headline inflation was 3.3%% in April while core inflation was 4.4%, according to the presentation.
The NBS expects inflation to stay within its target range through mid-2026, then temporarily move above the upper bound around late 2026 and early 2027. It describes a large investment and services cycle as capable of adding demand-side pressure if sequencing does not manage timing effects .
Sovereign risk considerations tied to delivery
The presentation frames Expo 2027 as both an opportunity and a credibility test for Serbia’s policy execution. It states that Serbia has achieved investment-grade status from S&P and has high reserves, moderate debt and a stable banking system.
The next phase is described as dependent on delivery against fiscal discipline, inflation control and external balance requirements assessed by international investors . The macro outlook therefore connects execution capacity with how spending translates into outcomes across growth drivers.
The NBS positions the most favourable scenario as one where investment improves infrastructure, increases services exports, supports private-sector expansion and strengthens regional positioning through assets left after Expo implementation . It also notes that a less favourable scenario would involve more temporary demand effects raising imports and construction costs without lifting long-term output.
