Standard & Poor’s assigned Serbia an investment-grade BBB- rating with a stable outlook in October 2024. Fitch kept Serbia at BB+ with a positive outlook in January 2026, while Moody’s maintained a Ba2 rating in February 2026, shifting its outlook from positive to stable. The three-agency picture places Serbia in a transition range, with one rating already at investment grade and others still below that threshold.
- Sovereign debt, deficits and capital spending indicators
- NBS growth outlook and external buffers for dinar stability
- Dinar support through reserves and intervention activity in 2025–2026
- Sovereign funding focus shifts toward fiscal execution and inflation risks
- Balanace-of-payments snapshot: first-quarter current account and trade dynamics
- Export growth supported by manufacturing and services expansion
The rating shift has coincided with funding activity in international markets. In April 2026, Serbia issued a triple-tranche Eurobond of around €3bn, with maturities of 5 years, 10 years and 12 years. Coupon rates were 4.25%, 4.66% and 4.875%, respectively. The 12-year tranche was linked to investments supporting sustainable economic growth.
The bond pricing signal also drew attention. Serbia’s euro-denominated debt risk premium stood at 144bp at the end of April 2026, down by 15bp from the end of 2025. The premium rose temporarily in March amid global geopolitical tensions. The change reflected a repricing of risk in the period around the upgrade and subsequent market access.
Sovereign debt, deficits and capital spending indicators
Serbia’s fiscal indicators were cited as supporting the repricing. General government debt was reported at 42.0% of GDP at the end of March 2026, while central government debt was 41.7%. The combined ratio declined by 2.7 percentage points from the end of 2025.
The government deficit data also featured in the funding backdrop. Serbia recorded a deficit of 2.4% of GDP in 2025, while capital expenditure reached RSD 715bn, equal to 6.9% of GDP. In the first quarter of 2026, the general government deficit was reported at RSD 112.9bn. Revenues rose by 13.5% year on year, supported by social contributions, VAT and corporate income tax, while expenditures increased by 21.9%.
The faster growth in spending was attributed to capital expenditure, wages and pensions. This profile raised an execution focus for investors, even without a debt-crisis scenario. The investment programme is described as large but financed from a relatively strong starting position. Roads, railways, urban infrastructure, Expo-related facilities and logistics upgrades are among the areas referenced.
NBS growth outlook and external buffers for dinar stability
The National Bank of Serbia projected economic growth of 3.0% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027. The forecast highlighted an Expo investment cycle as an important factor behind acceleration. That outlook was used to frame a time horizon for bond-market expectations following the upgrade.
Dinar support through reserves and intervention activity in 2025–2026
The reserve position was presented as strengthening the sovereign case. FX reserves were reported at €28.2bn in April 2026, covering slightly less than seven months of goods and services imports and around 160% of M1. Gold reserves were reported at 54 tonnes, with gold accounting for more than 24% of total reserves by value.
The dinar’s performance was also described as an anchor for confidence. The currency weakened by only 0.2% against the euro in 2025< /stronG >and by 0.1% from the start of 2026 to April. Stability required active intervention by the NBS, including selling net amounts of €580mn< /stronG >in 2025 and €1.205bn< /stronG >net during the first four months of 2026.
Sovereign funding focus shifts toward fiscal execution and inflation risks
The investment-grade label was described as changing Serbia’s funding platform rather than eliminating policy requirements. Investors were said to focus on how bond-market funding is managed alongside fiscal execution and inflation expectations. Public investment management was also highlighted as relevant for maintaining credibility during the infrastructure cycle.
The vulnerabilities cited included potential inflation overshoots above target and an expected widening in the current-account deficit to 5.9% of GDP< /stronG >in 2026. The same set of risks included the need for careful management of public investment plans during periods when imports may rise.
Balanace-of-payments snapshot: first-quarter current account and trade dynamics
An external update showed unusually strong conditions early in 2026, with expectations that the full-year picture would be more demanding. The National Bank of Serbia’s investor presentation reported a current-account deficit of only €179.3mn< /stronG >in the first quarter, equivalent to 0.8% of GDP< /stronG >and down by €472mn< /stronG >year on year due to stronger exports and restrained imports.
The goods and services balance was described as particularly strong, with a deficit falling to 2.4% of GDP< /stronG >and below both the lowest first-quarter comparison point cited and a five-year average of 6.7%< /stronG >. Exports of goods and services increased by 6.4%< /stronG >year on year while imports rose by 2.5%< /stronG >.
Export growth supported by manufacturing and services expansion
The export performance was linked to resilience across goods categories and services activity. Goods exports rose by 7.4%< /stronG >year on year in the first quarter after increasing by 8.7%< /stronG >in 2025. Manufacturing exports increased by 9.1%< /stronG >and motor vehicle exports surged by 59.0%< /stronG >
