In 2025, Serbia’s energy costs for heavy industry are positioned competitively when compared to regional neighbors, according to a recent analysis of combined gas and power costs across various industrial sectors. The evaluation focuses on four key products: electric arc furnace (EAF) steel, cement, ammonia/fertilizers, and copper cathodes, highlighting the energy cost dynamics that influence competitiveness.
The analysis indicates that electricity prices in Serbia for 2025 are projected to range between €120 and €140 per megawatt-hour (MWh). In comparison, Hungary’s electricity prices are expected to be slightly lower at €110 to €140/MWh, while Romania’s prices will be higher at €150 to €190/MWh. Bulgaria’s electricity prices range from €140 to €180/MWh, Croatia from €115 to €145/MWh, and Greece from €130 to €170/MWh. For gas, Serbia’s costs are estimated between €35 and €45/MWh, slightly above Hungary’s range of €32 to €42/MWh but lower than Romania’s typical heavy industry costs of €45 to €60/MWh.
For EAF steel production, Serbia’s combined energy cost is projected at approximately €47.25 to €81.00 per tonne, with a midpoint around €64.12. This positions Serbia competitively against Romania, which has a midpoint cost of about €84.38 per tonne. The cost differential translates into significant savings for larger production facilities; for instance, a one-million-tonne-per-year operation in Serbia could save around €20 million annually compared to Romanian counterparts.
In the cement sector, Serbia’s energy costs are forecasted at about €41.95 to €61.80 per tonne, placing it favorably against Romania’s higher costs of approximately €68.17 per tonne. The analysis highlights that while Serbia remains competitive due to stable gas pricing, procurement strategies in Hungary and Croatia may allow them to achieve better pricing under certain conditions.
Ammonia production reveals even more pronounced competitiveness for Serbia. With projected costs ranging from €333 to €582 per tonne and a midpoint around €457.5, Serbia enjoys a significant advantage over Romania’s typical cost of approximately €603 per tonne. This could yield annual savings of up to €145 million for a one-million-tonne-per-year facility.
Copper cathode production costs in Serbia are estimated between €41.25 and €102.00 per tonne. This places Serbia ahead of Romania and Bulgaria but comparable to Croatia. The competitiveness here hinges on the stability of electricity pricing and the ability to manage volatility premiums associated with energy procurement.
Overall, the data suggests that while Serbia does not always have the lowest nominal energy prices in every category, its ability to provide stable and predictable delivered energy costs positions it favorably within the regional landscape for heavy industry in 2025.
