The National Bank of Serbia has incorporated the global economic effects of artificial intelligence into its assessment of the external environment, identifying AI-driven investment as a force partly countering the impact of the Middle East energy shock.
In its August Inflation Report, the NBS cites assessments from the World Bank and IMF indicating that the global economy has shown greater resilience to the 2026 energy shock than initially expected, partly because of an accelerating technology cycle associated with the development and adoption of AI tools.
The report includes a dedicated chart comparing global trade in AI-related products with other trade flows and the PMI for global computer equipment, placing technology investment alongside energy prices, exchange rates, labour markets and fiscal conditions in the external economic assessment.
Global technology investment supports growth
The NBS distinguishes between the effects of the technology cycle across economies. Countries integrated into technology supply chains can benefit from higher investment and demand, while economies more exposed to energy disruptions face increased costs. The IMF projects global economic growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, which the NBS describes as evidence of greater resilience than might have been expected given the scale of the energy shock. The United States provides a direct example of the investment effect. According to the NBS report, the Federal Reserve assessed that US economic activity remained solid in the second quarter, supported by consumption and investment in artificial-intelligence development.
The Federal Reserve’s June projections put US growth at 2.2% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, while identifying uncertainty surrounding both the Middle East conflict and the economic consequences of AI investment. AI-related spending on data centres, semiconductors, servers, software and associated infrastructure can raise aggregate demand and capital formation before the productivity effects of those investments become fully apparent.
AI creates both demand and price effects
The impact of artificial intelligence on inflation remains less certain. The Federal Reserve is also assessing the effect of AI on consumer prices, according to the NBS report. Its June projections placed expected US headline PCE inflation at 3.6% in 2026 and core PCE inflation at 3.3%, with energy prices also identified as an important factor. The investment cycle itself can increase demand for electricity, specialised labour, computing equipment and construction. Productivity improvements could subsequently lower production costs, but the timing and scale of those effects remain uncertain.
For Serbia, the NBS does not identify domestic AI investment as a major direct source of GDP growth and does not provide data establishing such an effect. The transmission mechanism instead runs through international trade, investment and financial conditions. A stronger global technology cycle can support European and worldwide demand, increase manufacturing orders and reduce the likelihood that the energy shock results in a deeper global slowdown. These developments can in turn influence Serbian exports, investment confidence and capital flows.
Technology-linked exports connect Serbia to the cycle
Serbia’s growing participation in manufacturing and technology-related value chains increases the relevance of the global technology cycle to the domestic economy. Automotive exports have expanded sharply, while computers and electronic products have contributed to export growth. ICT services have also remained among the strongest categories of Serbian service exports.
The NBS reported that exports of computers and electronic products in the first half of the year were among manufacturing categories contributing positively to overall export growth, while ICT services were among the main contributors to growth in service exports. The developments do not establish Serbia as an AI-driven economy. They indicate, however, that stronger global investment in computing, electronics and digital services can reach the Serbian economy through industrial demand, service exports and investor sentiment.
Technology investment intersects with energy constraints
The relationship between AI investment and energy markets is also relevant to Serbia. AI-related infrastructure requires substantial electricity, while Serbia is simultaneously dealing with CBAM, lower hydropower availability and the need to expand renewable generation. The global technology cycle and the energy transition consequently interact through electricity demand, investment and production costs.
The NBS identifies a broader global balance in which higher energy costs and geopolitical fragmentation constrain supply and confidence, while AI-related investment supports demand, capital spending and potential productivity gains. This combination complicates the external outlook for monetary policymakers. A technology investment cycle can increase economic activity without immediately reducing inflation. It can strengthen investment and financial markets while raising electricity demand, and it can generate productivity gains over time while producing temporary capacity constraints in specific sectors.
The NBS does not quantify a separate contribution from artificial intelligence to Serbian GDP or inflation.
Its inclusion in the macroeconomic framework nevertheless places AI among the current forces influencing the external outlook. The August 2026 Inflation Report treats the technology cycle as an active global economic factor rather than solely as a long-term productivity trend. For Serbia’s 2026–2028 outlook, external conditions remain central. Weak euro-area growth, volatile energy prices and tighter global financial conditions represent major risks, while stronger technology-related investment provides a countervailing force. AI-related investment has consequently become part of the NBS assessment of the external balance of risks affecting Serbian growth, inflation and monetary policy.
