Serbia’s external balance is increasingly supported by services exports, a structural shift that receives less attention than goods trade, foreign direct investment or industrial production. The country’s goods trade deficit remains a recurring macro feature. Services are now contributing more to offsetting that gap and strengthening foreign-exchange resilience.
The services surplus reached €546.6mn in January–February 2026, up 1.6% year-on-year. The figure points to a balance of payments where services-related activities are taking on greater weight. ICT, business services, technical services, management consulting, research, tourism and transport-related activities are listed among the growing components.
Services role alongside goods exports
Goods exports remain central, particularly manufacturing exports to the EU. At the same time, goods trade is exposed to industrial cycles, energy costs, imported inputs and conditions in Germany, Italy and other European partners. Services exports are described as more diversified and less dependent on physical supply chains.
Services exports can also expand when manufacturing is uneven. This matters for how Serbia’s external model is read across different parts of the economy. The shift is presented as a change in the balance of payments dynamics rather than a replacement for goods trade.
ICT and business services in export earnings
ICT is identified as the most visible success story within Serbia’s services export performance. The country has developed a base in software, outsourcing, digital services and technical talent. The sector is said to contribute export earnings, high wages, tax revenues and urban employment.
The ICT segment is also linked to spillovers into real estate, education, business services and venture activity. Unlike traditional manufacturing, ICT is described as scaling through human capital and connectivity rather than heavy physical infrastructure. Talent shortages and wage inflation are noted as constraints.
Business and professional services are also highlighted among the areas supporting foreign income. Consulting, engineering, technical design, research and administrative services are cited as contributing while building domestic skills. These activities are described as particularly relevant as Serbia moves toward more complex infrastructure, energy and environmental compliance needs aligned with EU regulatory frameworks.
Currency stability and external inflows
The services surplus is presented as an additional factor for currency stability in Serbia. Dinar stability is described as supported by FX reserves, remittances, FDI and external inflows. A steady services surplus adds another layer of support to the external position.
The surplus is said to help offset goods imports and reduce pressure on the current account. This is framed against a year in which industrial production is uneven and imports may rise again alongside investment and consumption.
Policy focus and investor-facing sectors
A competitiveness strategy implication is outlined: services should not be treated as secondary to manufacturing. High-value services are described as supporting productivity, exports and resilience while helping retain skilled workers when labour markets are tight and wage growth is strong. The agenda includes education, digital infrastructure, tax predictability, intellectual-property protection and international market access.
For investors, the services-export theme is linked to opportunities beyond factories and infrastructure. ICT parks, data centres, engineering hubs, business-process services, technical training, digital finance, tourism infrastructure and professional services platforms are listed as part of an export ecosystem.
The sectors are also described as connecting to Serbia’s EU integration path because companies increasingly need compliance support alongside digitalisation requirements. Carbon reporting needs, energy procurement capacity and technical advisory capacity are also referenced as demand drivers for service providers.
Regional concentration of service exports
A risk identified in the source material concerns concentration in talent-heavy urban centres. Belgrade and Novi Sad are described as capturing much of the services-export value. Regional economies are characterised as remaining more dependent on manufacturing, agriculture, construction and public spending.
A sustainable services strategy is described as requiring wider skills development and regional digital infrastructure. This addresses the geographic distribution of service-export capacity rather than changing the overall role of services in the external account.
Services surplus contribution to Serbia’s external account
Serbia’s services surplus is characterised as strengthening the external account while supporting higher-value employment. It also reduces dependence on goods exports alone in an environment where industry remains uneven and the trade deficit persists. Within this framework, services are described as one of Serbia’s stabilisers for foreign-exchange resilience during 2026.
