Savo Jakovljević, Director General of Economic Research and Statistics at the National Bank of Serbia (NBS), stated that inflation is projected to reach around 4.0% in 2026, approaching the central target by year-end, and to stabilize near 3.0% or slightly higher in 2027.
He confirmed that the planned 7% electricity price increase, agreed with the IMF, has been factored into the projections, contributing approximately 0.4 percentage points to inflation. Serbia’s electricity cost of €0.11 per kilowatt-hour remains among the lowest in Europe.
Jakovljević highlighted that fruit and vegetable prices are currently the main drivers of inflation. Year-on-year increases include apples (+51%), raspberries (+50%), apricots (+70%), peaches (+87%), and cherries (+205%). Overall, fruit prices rose 28% in the first half of the year—double the five-year average—mirroring trends in countries with weaker harvests.
Analysis of 17 fruit and 19 vegetable crops over the past eight years shows that June 2025 recorded the highest prices for all 17 observed fruit crops, reflecting the impact of unfavorable weather conditions on supply and costs.
