Serbia’s export production now accounts for more than half of GDP on a gross basis, with export-facing output measured by gross exports of goods and services against nominal GDP at roughly 54–55%. The cleanest 2025 calculation uses nominal GDP of €88.67bn, goods exports of €33.07bn, and services exports of about €15.23bn. This implies a goods-export ratio of 37.3% of GDP, a services-export ratio of 17.2%, and a combined gross export-to-GDP ratio of 54.5%.
The gross export figure does not represent pure domestic value added generated for export. Gross exports include imported inputs, energy, components, machinery, metals, chemicals and other intermediate goods embedded in Serbian exports. The domestic value-added contribution is lower, particularly in automotive, electronics, rubber, machinery and metal-processing chains. Even so, the gross ratio indicates that Serbia has become more strongly export-linked, with industrial production, FDI plants, ICT services, transport and business services increasingly tied to external demand.
Goods trade: exports grow faster than imports in early 2026
The goods side remains the core of Serbia’s external performance. In 2025, Serbia exported €33.07bn of goods, up 8.4% year on year, while imports reached €41.86bn. That left a goods deficit of €8.79bn and an export-import coverage ratio of 79.0%. By January–April 2026, exports rose another 8.2% year on year to €11.78bn, while imports were almost flat at €14.11bn.
The early-2026 shift lifted the export-import coverage ratio to 83.5%. Annualised mechanically, the first four months of 2026 imply goods exports close to 40% of 2025 GDP. The final annual outcome will depend on second-half industrial activity, energy conditions and commodity cycles.
Manufacturing drives goods-export growth under balance-of-payments methodology
The National Bank of Serbia reports that manufacturing provided the largest contribution to goods-export growth in 2025. Under balance-of-payments methodology, manufacturing added 7.6 percentage points to total goods-export growth of 8.7%. Within manufacturing, the strongest drivers were motor vehicles and trailers, rubber and plastics, and food products.
The same pattern continued in the first quarter of 2026. Manufacturing added 7.9 percentage points to goods-export growth, with motor vehicles and trailers contributing 6.2 percentage points. These figures are presented as part of the balance-of-payments breakdown of goods-export performance.
Export clusters and EU market composition
Serbia’s export share in GDP is linked to a relatively narrow set of production clusters carrying most of the industrial export load. These include automotive and components, electrical machinery, rubber and plastics, base metals, copper-related output, food processing, pharmaceuticals and machinery.
The European Commission’s 2025 trade profile shows that Serbia’s exports to the EU were led by machinery and transport equipment at €8.18bn, manufactured goods classified chiefly by material at €5.21bn, and chemicals and related products at €4.03bn. Total Serbian goods exports to the EU reached €25.91bn in 2025, up 8.4% year on year.
The EU is also described as the anchor market in Serbia’s trade reporting. In 2025, EU-27 countries absorbed 62.4% of Serbia’s goods exports under NBS reporting, while EU member states accounted for 58.3% of Serbia’s total external goods trade under SORS reporting. In the first quarter of 2026, the EU share of Serbia’s goods exports rose to 63.2%, supported by stronger automotive exports to Italy.
Services exports add a surplus alongside the goods deficit
Services form a second export pillar alongside goods trade data. In 2025, Serbia’s services exports were about €15.2bn, including ICT services at €4.55bn, other business services at €3.81bn, and all other service categories at €6.87bn. The services surplus was reported at €2.3bn, partially offsetting the goods deficit.
In the first quarter of 2026, services exports reached €3.7bn, with a surplus of €778.2mn, up 17.0% year on year.
Domestic value added inside exports remains lower than gross ratios suggest
The gross export-to-GDP ratios reflect turnover that can include imported content rather than only domestically generated value added inside exports. Imported capital goods, parts, energy and materials are cited as inputs required by industrial exports across supply chains including automotive and electrical production.
The source also highlights that ICT and business services are associated with higher domestic value added within services trade compared with import-intensive industrial chains; however, they are described as not yet substituting for the industrial base.
The next growth challenge is therefore described as raising domestic value added inside exports through deeper local supplier networks around FDI factories and higher local content in automotive and electrical supply chains. It also includes stronger certification for EU buyers and scaling exportable industrial services alongside continued expansion of ICT-related work covering design, logistics, maintenance, testing, compliance and business-process exports.
