Serbia’s external debt reached approximately €52.03 billion at the end of March 2026, continuing a multi-year increase in foreign liabilities while the composition of the debt limits immediate refinancing pressure. The total was up from around €51.18 billion at the end of 2025, representing an increase of approximately €860 million in three months.
The maturity profile remains a key factor in assessing the country’s external financing exposure. Of the total stock, around €50.57 billion was made up of medium- and long-term obligations, while short-term external debt stood at approximately €1.46 billion.
Long-term obligations dominate external liabilities
The relatively small share of short-term debt reduces the need for Serbia to refinance large volumes of external obligations over short periods. External financing risks are generally more pronounced when substantial amounts of foreign debt mature within months while investors become less willing to provide new capital. Serbia’s current external-liability structure does not show that concentration of near-term maturities.
The debt position also needs to be assessed alongside the country’s foreign-exchange liquidity. Foreign-exchange reserves subsequently exceeded €30.5 billion by July, providing a significant liquidity buffer against the gross external-debt position.
Foreign liabilities have increased since 2020
Despite the relatively contained near-term refinancing exposure, Serbia’s external debt has expanded considerably over the past several years. The stock rose from approximately €30.6 billion in 2020 to around €36.3 billion in 2021, before moving above the €50 billion threshold.
Part of that increase is associated with investment, infrastructure development and corporate expansion, rather than financial distress. Borrowing can increase future economic capacity when external financing is directed toward productive assets.
Investment returns remain central to debt sustainability
The key issue is therefore the economic return generated by additional borrowing. New external liabilities can support infrastructure, industrial projects and corporate investment, but their long-term sustainability depends on whether the resulting economic returns are sufficient to cover debt-servicing costs.
As the overall stock of external liabilities grows, the relationship between borrowed capital and the productive capacity it creates becomes increasingly important. Serbia currently has two significant buffers in the form of relatively rapid nominal GDP growth and substantial foreign-exchange reserves. These factors provide protection against immediate external financing stress, while the predominantly medium- and long-term debt structure limits short-term rollover requirements. Over the longer term, however, reserves and nominal economic growth do not replace the need for productivity gains, stronger exports and sufficient returns on investment to support the servicing of a growing external-debt stock.
