Serbian companies significantly increased their reliance on bank financing during the first seven months of 2026, with corporate loans reaching RSD 1.793 trillion at the end of July, up from RSD 1.658 trillion at the end of 2025.
The increase of approximately 8.2% since the beginning of the year points to stronger demand for corporate financing at a time when inflation has fallen sharply and economic growth remains in the mid-single-digit range. The expansion of lending indicates that businesses are increasing leverage at a faster pace than the broader economy is growing, while the structure of that borrowing highlights the continued importance of foreign-currency financing.
Foreign-currency exposure dominates corporate lending
Of the total corporate loan portfolio in July, approximately RSD 1.409 trillion was denominated in or indexed to foreign currencies. Lending in dinars stood at around RSD 385 billion. Foreign-currency-linked financing therefore accounted for close to four-fifths of corporate credit, leaving Serbian companies significantly exposed to financing conditions outside the domestic monetary system.
Serbia’s stable exchange-rate regime has made foreign-currency borrowing appear relatively low-risk for businesses, particularly companies generating revenues in euros. For exporters with matching euro income and liabilities, this structure can provide a natural currency hedge. The high share of euro-linked corporate borrowing also means that financial conditions in the euro area remain important for Serbian companies, even when the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) maintains an unchanged domestic monetary-policy stance.
State enterprises are not driving the credit increase
The lending data also show a different trend among public enterprises. Their outstanding loans stood at approximately RSD 205.8 billion in July, compared with RSD 223.8 billion at the end of 2025. The decline suggests that the overall increase in corporate borrowing is not primarily being driven by state-controlled companies. Instead, the expansion is concentrated more broadly across the corporate sector. The economic impact of the additional borrowing will depend on how companies deploy the funds. Financing directed toward factories, equipment, energy projects, logistics infrastructure and export capacity would represent investment in productive capacity.
By contrast, borrowing used mainly for inventories, refinancing existing obligations or consumption-related activity would carry different implications for the investment cycle. The NBS statistical bulletin does not provide sufficient information to establish conclusively how the additional corporate credit is being allocated.
Domestic banks expand their role in corporate financing
The acceleration in corporate lending comes as foreign direct investment has cooled, leaving Serbia’s domestic banking system to provide a larger volume of financing to companies. Corporate credit growth therefore points toward a potentially more domestically financed expansion of business activity, with banks playing a greater role in supplying capital to the private sector. At the same time, the stronger reliance on borrowing places a greater share of investment-cycle risk on corporate balance sheets and the banking system, as companies take on additional financial obligations to support their activity.
