Serbia’s external trade performance strengthened during the first five months of 2026, with merchandise exports growing significantly faster than imports, narrowing the country’s trade deficit while household spending and real wages continued to support domestic economic activity.
Trade figures indicate stronger export momentum than previously anticipated, even as consumer demand remained robust through rising retail sales and higher real incomes.
Merchandise exports outpace import growth
Between January and May 2026, Serbia’s merchandise exports increased 7.7% year on year to €14.69 billion. During the same period, imports rose by just 1% to €17.67 billion, reducing the country’s merchandise trade deficit by approximately 23% compared with the corresponding period of 2025. The stronger export performance also improved the export-to-import coverage ratio to 83%, up from 78% a year earlier.
Consumer spending remains supported by wage growth
Domestic demand continued to show resilience alongside improving external trade. Retail turnover increased 6.2% in real terms in May, while the average monthly net salary reached approximately €1,038, representing reported 11.5% real annual growth.
The combination of expanding exports, rising real wages and sustained consumer spending continued to support business revenues across retail, services, construction materials, financial services and transport.
Trade performance exceeds earlier expectations
The stronger pace of export growth is notable because the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) had previously projected that investment-related imports would outpace exports during 2026. Continued export growth above import expansion would reduce pressure on Serbia’s external financing requirements. Import growth could accelerate later in the investment cycle as purchases of equipment and construction materials increase ahead of Expo 2027.
