Serbia’s energy trade deficit widened in the first seven months of 2026 as sharply lower export receipts outweighed a comparatively modest increase in energy imports, offsetting part of the improvement generated by manufacturing exports.
Energy exports fell 35.3% year on year in January–July 2026 to approximately €491 million, while imports increased 3.2% to around €2.83 billion, according to September reporting based on Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends data. The resulting energy trade deficit reached approximately €2.34 billion. The deterioration was driven primarily by the decline in export earnings rather than by an equivalent surge in imports. The figures indicate that Serbia’s external energy exposure involves both the cost of imported energy and the performance of domestic assets that can generate export revenue.
Electricity-related exports show a sharper decline
The broader energy category includes several products and activities, meaning the aggregate figures do not establish the individual contribution of electricity, petroleum products, gas, physical volumes or prices. The data also do not, by themselves, identify the effects of weather conditions, maintenance, production interruptions or changes in export conditions.
A separate balance-of-payments analysis by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) provides additional information on the power-related sector. Exports classified under electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply declined 46.5%, making this activity the largest negative contributor to goods-export growth. That activity-based classification is narrower than the broader energy grouping and cannot be treated as an equivalent measure of total energy exports. Taken together, the data cover different measures but show pressure on the energy contribution to Serbia’s external trade position.
Power availability affects export revenue
For electricity producers, operational reliability has a direct commercial impact. When an asset is unavailable during periods of favourable prices, potential export revenue is lost. If domestic consumption subsequently has to be covered through imports, the financial impact can extend in the opposite direction as well. The exposure depends heavily on the timing of production and consumption. Annual energy balances can conceal periods of surplus and shortage in which market prices differ significantly.
Serbia can therefore export electricity during periods of lower prices while still requiring imports when domestic supply is tighter and the cost of purchased energy is higher. This makes maintenance planning, production forecasting and commercial scheduling relevant alongside the development of additional generation capacity. New generation can strengthen the energy balance once available, but its contribution depends on its commissioning date and how its production corresponds with domestic requirements. Expected annual output does not represent firm availability in every hour.
Energy costs affect industrial competitiveness
For industrial consumers, energy expenditure directly affects production economics. Manufacturers selling into international markets may have limited scope to transfer higher electricity or fuel costs to customers. Their ability to preserve margins depends partly on competitors’ costs and the terms of existing contracts. Investments that reduce energy consumption per unit of output can improve operating efficiency where they are supported by measured production data and realistic assumptions.
Projects that reduce avoidable energy losses can protect margins across different price conditions. Investments based only on assumptions of unusually high energy prices can produce different results if market conditions change. Energy procurement contracts also require assessment beyond the headline supply price. Volume deviations, changes in consumption profiles and other contractual charges can affect the total cost. For factories with variable production schedules and order volumes, those provisions can have a material effect on the actual cost of energy supply.
Energy services and maintenance support industrial users
The wider commercial market includes maintenance companies, metering providers, control-system specialists and energy-service businesses. Their contribution is linked to measurable improvements in equipment availability or reductions in energy consumption. At the national level, the energy balance affects how much of the improvement generated by competitive manufacturing exports is retained in the overall trade position.
Eliminating energy imports is not necessarily the relevant measure, since imported energy can provide supply security and can be commercially efficient. The distinction is between imports resulting from deliberate trading decisions and those associated with weaknesses in domestic production. Serbia’s manufacturing exporters are improving the goods trade position, while the €2.34 billion energy deficit in January–July 2026 absorbed part of that improvement.
