Serbia’s economic growth could surpass the 3.2% forecast for 2026, as stronger agricultural output, resilient domestic demand and infrastructure investment offset declining industrial production, according to the National Bank of Serbia (NBS).
The central bank said economic performance in the first half of the year and lower-than-expected imports had shifted the balance of risks to its annual growth projection to the upside. GDP increased by 3.8% year on year in the second quarter, accelerating from 3.2% in the first quarter and bringing growth for the first six months to approximately 3.5%.
Domestic Demand and Infrastructure Drive Growth
Household consumption, higher real disposable income and investment remain the main contributors to economic activity. Infrastructure projects and preparations for the Expo 2027 programme are supporting the investment pipeline as Serbia approaches the international exhibition year.
The NBS expects economic growth to accelerate to 4.5% in 2027, before stabilising at an estimated potential rate of approximately 3.5% annually over the medium term.
Industrial Output Declines as Services and Mining Expand
Industrial performance has remained weaker than broader economic indicators. Industrial production declined 1.5% year on year in July and August, with energy output falling by 4.2% and manufacturing production decreasing by 1.7%. Other sectors recorded stronger results. Mining output increased by 4.8%, retail trade expanded by 7.2%, and tourist arrivals rose by 6.2%, highlighting differences in performance across Serbia’s industrial and services sectors.
Investment and Productivity Remain Key Economic Factors
The outlook for businesses and investors depends partly on whether continued capital expenditure can strengthen productivity and expand export capacity. Infrastructure, transport, construction, financial services and higher-value business services are among the sectors positioned to benefit from further economic expansion.
Potential growth above 3.2% in 2026 would provide Serbia with a stronger economic starting point for Expo 2027. Sustaining that momentum will depend on translating investment-led expansion into productivity gains as the extraordinary infrastructure programme gradually loses its influence on economic activity.
