Serbia is heading into 2027 with a €19.561 billion capital programme spanning roads, railways, municipal infrastructure, manufacturing, public services and Expo-related projects, supporting the National Bank of Serbia’s forecast for 4.5% economic growth next year. The NBS expects GDP growth to accelerate from 3.2% in 2026 to 4.5% in 2027, with infrastructure investment, construction, services, automotive manufacturing and activity linked to Serbia Expo 2027 among the principal drivers.
- Construction and investment are already supporting growth
- Services expected to provide the largest 2027 contribution
- Stellantis strengthens the manufacturing and export outlook
- Roads and railways form the largest part of the investment pipeline
- Export growth and Expo services support the external balance
- Public debt remains below half of projected GDP
The scale of the programme extends well beyond the Expo event itself. Of the total planned investment under “Leap into the Future – Serbia Expo 2027,” €1.206 billion is directly associated with Expo, while the remainder covers a much broader infrastructure and public-investment pipeline. The largest allocations are €7.734 billion for road infrastructure and €4.766 billion for railways. Municipal infrastructure accounts for €3.394 billion, while €487 million is earmarked for water, air transport and hydropower projects. A further €1.974 billion covers public-sector modernisation, education, science, health, sport and other projects.
Construction and investment are already supporting growth
The NBS estimates that Serbia’s economy expanded 3.6% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, accelerating from 3.2% in the first quarter. Services contributed 2.2 percentage points to second-quarter growth, followed by construction with 0.4 points, agriculture with 0.3 points, industry with 0.2 points and net taxes with 0.6 points.
Construction activity increased an estimated 9.0%, while the value of completed construction works rose 9.7%. Building permits increased 4.5% in April and May, providing further evidence of activity across the construction pipeline. Real fixed investment also strengthened. According to the NBS, fixed investment increased 4.8% in real terms during the second quarter, adding 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth. Private investment continued to benefit from retained corporate profits and bank lending, while investment lending was expanding at a double-digit rate.
Services expected to provide the largest 2027 contribution
The NBS expects the strongest acceleration in 2027 to come from services as Expo-related activity increases tourism, business activity, transport and other service exports. Services are estimated to contribute around 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth in 2026, with their contribution projected to rise to approximately 3.2 percentage points in 2027. After the Expo effect fades, the contribution is expected to move back towards 2.2 percentage points in 2028.
The NBS estimates Serbia’s medium-term potential growth at approximately 3.5% annually. The 4.5% growth forecast for 2027 therefore represents an acceleration associated with the investment and Expo cycle rather than a permanent increase in the economy’s underlying growth capacity. Agriculture is also expected to strengthen. Following a weak 2025 season, the NBS now projects agricultural production to increase by around 7% in 2026, compared with the 3% growth assumption in May. The stronger agricultural performance is expected to add approximately 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth.
Stellantis strengthens the manufacturing and export outlook
Automotive production is providing another important source of expansion. The NBS reports that Serbian exports of motor vehicles increased 51.1% year on year during the first half of 2026, following higher production of the Fiat Grande Panda and, partly, the Citroën C3 at the Kragujevac plant operated by Stellantis. Motor vehicles generated nearly three-quarters of the increase in merchandise exports during the period, while the automotive cluster’s share of total goods exports approached 20%.
Motor-vehicle manufacturing output increased 43.3% year on year in the second quarter. The NBS expects electric-vehicle production in Kragujevac to increase further. Manufacturing is consequently projected to remain the largest positive contributor among production sectors, adding approximately 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in both 2026 and 2027.
Roads and railways form the largest part of the investment pipeline
The infrastructure programme encompasses motorways, expressways, bridges and tunnels, alongside major railway projects. Rail investment includes the Hungarian-Serbian railway and the reconstruction and modernisation of the Belgrade-Niš railway line. The wider construction pipeline also includes the Belgrade metro and an underground tunnel. As these projects progress, the NBS expects demand for imported machinery, equipment and intermediate goods to increase.
The import requirement associated with large infrastructure projects could widen Serbia’s external deficit, as machinery, steel, equipment and other inputs are sourced internationally. However, the country’s external position has developed more favourably than previously anticipated.
Export growth and Expo services support the external balance
The NBS has lowered its forecast for Serbia’s current-account deficit to 4.1% of GDP in 2026 and approximately 3% in 2027. Stronger-than-expected exports and additional revenues from tourism and business services linked to Expo are among the factors supporting the improved outlook For 2027, the central bank expects net exports to contribute around 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth, reversing the mildly negative contribution projected for 2026.
The anticipated improvement is not primarily based on a surge in merchandise exports. Instead, the NBS expects higher service exports generated by foreign visitors, business activity and the Expo event to provide the principal support.
Public debt remains below half of projected GDP
The investment programme is being implemented while Serbia’s public debt remains relatively contained. At the end of June, general-government debt stood at 44.1% of projected 2026 GDP. The NBS does not provide project-level calculations of returns or financing costs for the €19.561 billion investment envelope. Its August Inflation Report instead establishes the macroeconomic scale of the programme and its expected interaction with capital formation, construction, services and exports. The programme brings multiple investment cycles together within the same 2026-27 period, including transport infrastructure, municipal projects, automotive manufacturing and tourism-related activity.
Construction costs are already rising, with construction input prices 10.8% higher year on year in June, significantly above consumer-price inflation. Large-scale implementation can therefore increase pressure on construction labour, materials and imported inputs. The NBS expects growth to move back towards the economy’s potential rate after the Expo period. The 2027 acceleration is being driven by the simultaneous implementation of roads, railways, municipal infrastructure, Belgrade transport projects, automotive production and service-sector activity associated with Expo.
