Serbia’s external trade position improved in the first eight months of 2026, with the current-account deficit declining to €2.1 billion, down €343 million year on year. Exports of goods and services increased by 8.5%, exceeding the 6.4% growth in imports, while domestic economic activity continued to expand.
The improvement was also reflected in the trade balance. Serbia’s trade deficit declined to 3.2% of GDP in the first half of 2026, compared with an average of 4.7% during 2023–2025.
The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) has consequently lowered its forecast for the 2026 current-account deficit to approximately 4% of GDP, compared with its previous projection of 5.9%. For 2027, the central bank expects the deficit to narrow further to around 3% of GDP, partly supported by higher services exports associated with the international Expo.
The adjustment has taken place alongside continued domestic economic activity. Retail sales and tourism are expanding, wages are increasing and investment remains positive. At the same time, manufacturing exports have accelerated and services exports continue to grow, indicating that earlier investment, particularly in manufacturing, is generating additional export-oriented production.
External Balance and Medium-Term Forecasts
Despite the improvement, Serbia continues to record a current-account deficit. The NBS expects the gap to move towards an equilibrium level of approximately 4.5% of GDP in 2028, after the temporary contribution from Expo-related activity diminishes.
Primary-income outflows, including dividend payments, remain a factor affecting the external balance. These payments are linked to the presence of foreign-owned businesses in Serbia, as profits generated by investments are partly transferred abroad. The central bank’s projections therefore distinguish between the temporary improvement expected from higher services exports and the economy’s longer-term external position.
Manufacturing and Services Support Export Growth
Serbia’s sources of foreign-exchange earnings have become more diversified. Manufacturing exports are increasing, while business and information and communications technology services are expanding. Transport and tourism also contribute to export revenues.
Trade geography has become more diversified compared with a decade ago, although the European Union remains a central market for Serbian businesses. The expansion of goods and services exports alongside stronger domestic demand indicates that the reduction in the external deficit has not resulted from a contraction in imports caused by economic stagnation.
The longer-term performance of Serbia’s external accounts will depend on whether manufacturing and services exports maintain their growth after the current investment cycle and whether domestic suppliers capture a larger share of the value added generated by foreign-owned industrial facilities.
