Serbia’s current-account deficit narrowed substantially in the first half of 2026 despite a sharp deterioration in the country’s energy trade balance, with stronger exports across the broader economy offsetting part of the increase in energy imports. The current-account deficit stood at approximately €1.4 billion in H1 2026, about 30% below the level recorded a year earlier.
Exports of goods and services grew by 7.9%, while imports increased by 4.9%. As a result, the average coverage of imports by exports reached a record approximately 95%.
Energy balance moves in the opposite direction
The improvement in Serbia’s overall external position contrasted with developments in the energy account. Between March and June, the energy balance deteriorated by approximately €421.4 million year on year, reflecting higher imports alongside lower exports. The wider external accounts nevertheless strengthened as activity outside the energy sector generated higher export revenues. Automotive exports, copper, manufacturing, ICT and business services collectively offset a substantial portion of the impact from the higher energy import bill.
The divergence between the energy balance and the total current account indicates the growing contribution of non-energy sectors to Serbia’s external trade performance.
Current-account deficit projected at 4.1% of GDP
The full-year current-account deficit is expected to reach approximately 4.1% of GDP. The deficit ratio is projected to decline toward 3% of GDP in 2027, as service exports associated with Expo-related activity increase. The longer-term trade data also show a significant reduction in Serbia’s external merchandise imbalance. The trade deficit averaged around 13.5% of GDP in 2011–2013, compared with 4.7% in 2023–2025.
In the first half of 2026, the trade deficit was equivalent to only around 3.1% of GDP. Serbia remains exposed to imported energy, while its export base now spans a wider range of goods and services. The stronger contribution from non-energy exports provides a larger counterbalance to energy-related external shocks and reduces the extent to which higher domestic investment translates into additional external financing requirements.
