Serbia’s external trade figures for the first quarter of 2026 show goods exports up 7.1% to €8.713bn, while imports were almost flat at €10.314bn. The trade deficit narrowed by 25.4% to €1.601bn. Export-import coverage improved to 84.5%, from 79.1% a year earlier.
A narrower deficit can reflect different underlying drivers, including export performance or changes in import demand. Serbia’s Q1 results include both elements, with exports rising but industrial production still down by 0.8% year-on-year. The data therefore point to improvement in the external balance alongside ongoing weakness in industrial output.
March shows the strongest month for goods trade
Total goods trade increased by 10.2% year-on-year in March, adding €691.2mn. Exports reached €3.374bn, up 15.4%, while imports rose 6.3% to €4.066bn. The monthly deficit fell by 23.2% to €691.3mn.
The March improvement was linked to higher manufacturing exports during the quarter. Manufacturing exports rose by 18.6% in March, following broader gains across the first three months of the year.
Manufacturing leads export growth; mining rises from a smaller base
Manufacturing accounted for 87.8% of Serbia’s total goods exports in the first quarter and delivered cumulative export growth of 9.1%. In March, manufacturing exports increased by 18.6%. Mining exports also grew strongly, rising by 25.4% over the first quarter, though from a smaller base.
Not all export categories expanded over the period, with electricity and agricultural exports declining during the first quarter. This indicates that the export recovery was not uniform across sectors.
The EU remains Serbia’s dominant trade destination
The European Union accounted for 59.2% of Serbia’s total trade in the first quarter, with Germany as the largest single partner at a 13.2% share . Other EU markets contribute scale and supply-chain integration through demand and trading links with Germany and Italy.
This concentration also means that shifts in European manufacturing activity can quickly affect Serbian trade flows . Serbia’s export structure continues to depend on industrial components and intermediate goods alongside vehicle-related products.
Vehicles support manufacturing; import growth stays subdued
The export mix includes industrial components, vehicles, electrical equipment, metals, machinery, pharmaceuticals and intermediate goods . Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers contributed notably to performance, with output up by 51.5% in the first quarter and adding 2.84 percentage points to manufacturing growth.
The import side showed limited expansion, with imports rising only 0.3% in the first quarter . With industrial production down by 0.8%, flat import growth alongside weaker output suggests part of the external improvement may have come from reduced pressure on the import bill rather than solely stronger export performance.
China deficit persists as regional surpluses continue
A persistent deficit with China remains a structural feature of Serbia’s external accounts . Serbia imports large volumes of consumer goods, equipment and intermediate products from China, while its strongest surpluses are often recorded with neighbouring markets such as Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
This pattern provides a regional-export cushion but does not remove the asymmetry tied to Asian supply chains . For investors monitoring external stability, Q1 trade data show an improvement in balances without a currency shock or a demand collapse as described in the figures.
Differentiating whether deficit narrowing comes from exports or imports
The quality of adjustment depends on whether the deficit narrows through stronger exports or weaker imports . A narrowing driven by higher exports aligns with improved performance on the export side, while a narrowing associated with subdued import growth points to softer demand for imported inputs.
The first-quarter figures show an export recovery that is particularly visible in manufacturing alongside limited import growth . The next check highlighted in the data is whether exports can keep expanding while imports recover through investment and industrial production .
