Serbia’s information technology, fintech and business-services segment is expanding faster than much of the broader economy, but it is moving into a more demanding operating environment. In the first quarter of 2026, operating income in Serbia’s non-financial business economy increased by 6.4% year on year. Over the same period, operating income in the information and communication sector rose by 11.4%.
Operating costs in ICT increased by 12.5% in the first quarter of 2026, outpacing income growth. The gap highlights margin pressure tied to higher delivery expenses rather than a slowdown in revenue momentum. Labour costs, senior talent shortages, subcontractor rates and office costs are among the factors cited as becoming more influential.
First-quarter performance and cost pressures
The sector’s operating picture reflects stronger top-line results alongside rising costs. Senior talent shortages and subcontractor rates are identified as contributors to higher expense growth. Office costs and international competition are also described as pressures that are beginning to matter more for firms.
Despite these constraints, the outlook for the second half of 2026 remains positive based on external demand conditions. Serbia’s ICT, fintech and business-services firms are expected to deliver around 10% to 12% operating-income growth in H2 2026 if external demand stays stable. Software exporters, cybersecurity providers, AI implementation advisers and cloud migration teams are highlighted among those likely to outperform.
Exportability and SEPA connectivity
The exportability of Serbian software and services is presented as a key element of the sector’s resilience. Companies can sell into the EU, US and regional markets without needing large physical assets. This structure is described as providing a hedge against fluctuations in domestic demand.
SEPA connectivity is also cited as strengthening the case for cross-border payments. On May 5, the NBS said Serbia’s banking sector was operationally ready to execute SEPA Credit Transfer payments, with 18 domestic commercial banks handling SEPA payments for citizens and businesses. The European Commission said Serbia’s entry into SEPA schemes could make euro transactions with the EU faster and cheaper and save individuals and businesses up to €400mn.
For technology companies, SEPA is described as creating product opportunities beyond banking operations. Fintechs are expected to build tools around euro invoicing, automated reconciliation, cross-border collections and SME treasury. Accounting platforms can simplify payment matching, while banks can compete on user experience rather than only fees; freelancers and small agencies can also be easier to pay.
Specialised services versus wage-driven risks
The next phase of growth is framed around specialised capability rather than generic outsourcing. Firms selling undifferentiated development hours may face pricing pressure from clients and competition from other markets. Providers offering domain expertise such as payments, cybersecurity, industrial software, AI integration, ERP implementation and data infrastructure are described as better positioned to defend margins.
Wages are identified as a vulnerability affecting delivery costs across the sector. ICT salaries have been rising for years, alongside a broader wage backdrop that remains strong. Serbia’s average net wage reached RSD121,650 in March, while first-quarter average net wages were up 8.9% in real terms year on year.
This wage dynamic is described as double-edged for tech firms: it supports domestic consumption and helps retain talent in Serbia but raises delivery costs. Companies billing in euros or dollars can manage this better than firms dependent on domestic contracts in dinars.
Investor focus shifts toward cash conversion
The investor lens is described as changing from an earlier phase where revenue growth alone was sufficient. In the next phase, investors are expected to look for recurring revenue, pricing power, low churn and specialised skills. The ability to convert revenue into cash is also highlighted as a factor.
The strongest companies in H2 are described as those operating less like labour brokers and more like product or expertise businesses. They are expected to automate internal processes, standardise delivery and deepen vertical specialisation. Improved payment connectivity is also referenced as supporting smoother service delivery to European customers.
Serbia’s ICT sector remains characterised as a growth engine while no longer being treated solely as a low-cost driver of expansion.
