Serbia has extended its temporary ban on crude oil and petroleum product exports until 30 September 2026, keeping fuel supplies in the domestic market amid continued uncertainty over Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS). The decision extends a measure that was due to expire at the end of August and coincides with the latest US authorisation allowing NIS to continue refinery operations, crude imports, financial transactions, maintenance and domestic supply through 30 September. The deadline also coincides with negotiations between MOL Group and Gazprom Neft over the Russian company’s 56.15% stake in NIS, which are reportedly in their final phase.
Pančevo refinery remains critical
The US waiver has reduced the immediate risk of disruption at the Pančevo refinery, Serbia’s only refinery and a facility supplying roughly 80% of domestic fuel demand. The temporary authorisation does not provide long-term certainty for banks, suppliers, traders, insurers and other companies working with NIS. The export ban is intended to ensure that available fuel remains in Serbia if supply conditions deteriorate.
Serbia’s alternatives are also constrained by exceptionally low Danube water levels. River transport has been disrupted, with some vessels carrying only around one-third of normal loads. Fuel imports in July reached approximately 25% of the monthly target, limiting the country’s ability to compensate quickly through imports.
MOL talks become central to energy policy
A potential acquisition by MOL Group would replace sanctioned Russian ownership with a major Central European energy company and could reduce uncertainty surrounding NIS’s international transactions. NIS has processing capacity of around 4.8 million tonnes per year, with recent daily refinery runs reaching approximately 13,000 tonnes. The company also has an extensive retail network, upstream oil and gas assets and logistics infrastructure.
For Serbia, the future of Pančevo remains crucial. The government is expected to place emphasis on continued refinery operations, domestic supply security, investment and maintenance under any new ownership structure.
Pipeline project adds strategic importance
The planned oil pipeline between Hungary and Serbia is expected to strengthen crude-supply diversification. The Serbian section from Horgoš toward Novi Sad will extend for more than 100 kilometres and is planned to carry around 5.5 million tonnes of crude annually. Construction is targeted to begin before the end of 2026. Under potential MOL ownership, the pipeline could also support closer integration between Serbian and Hungarian oil infrastructure.
September deadline puts pressure on negotiations
Changing NIS ownership would address the sanctions-related uncertainty but would not eliminate Serbia’s broader dependence on imported crude, its single-refinery structure or vulnerability to transport disruptions. The government therefore faces a critical September deadline. If the MOL–Gazprom Neft negotiations produce an acceptable ownership solution, Serbia could begin dismantling its emergency fuel measures. Until then, the export ban remains a key tool for protecting domestic supplies while NIS continues operating under a temporary US authorisation.
