The National Bank of Serbia has raised its forecasts for economic growth and expects a substantially smaller current-account deficit than the IMF and European Commission, reflecting stronger-than-expected first-half activity and expanding export capacity. The NBS projects real GDP growth of 3.2% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. The IMF’s June forecasts stand at 2.8% and 4.0%, while the European Commission projects 2.8% and 3.9%.
Consensus Economics expects growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance is closer to the central bank, forecasting 3.0% growth this year and 4.5% next year. The NBS raised its 2026 projection from 3.0% to 3.2% after second-quarter growth accelerated to an estimated 3.6%. Services, agriculture, manufacturing and construction all performed better than previously expected, while exports remained resilient despite weak European demand.
Export growth drives a narrower external deficit
The differences between the forecasts extend beyond GDP growth. The NBS expects Serbia’s current-account deficit to be substantially smaller than international institutions anticipate. The IMF and European Commission project a deficit of around 6% of GDP in 2026, citing higher energy costs, infrastructure-related imports and weak external demand. The NBS forecasts a deficit of approximately 4.1% of GDP, declining toward 3% in 2027.
Serbia recorded a current-account deficit of just €1.4 billion during the first six months of 2026, approximately 30% lower than a year earlier. Exports of goods and services increased 7.9%, compared with 4.9% growth in imports. The NBS also points to foreign-exchange reserves of more than €30 billion as an additional external buffer.
Automotive and mining exports strengthen capacity
The automotive industry has been a major contributor to export growth. Expanded production by Stellantis in Kragujevac helped increase motor-vehicle exports by 51.1% during the first half. Mining exports rose 34.7%. The NBS attributes the increase to expanded productive capacity, while higher copper prices also provided significant support to mining revenues.
The central bank expects Expo 2027 to provide an additional temporary boost to service exports. Tourism and business services are projected to help make net exports a positive contributor to GDP growth in 2027, adding approximately 0.7 percentage points to economic growth. The IMF and European Commission also incorporate the Expo-related effect into their forecasts, but start from a larger external imbalance. The IMF expects Serbia’s current-account deficit to narrow to approximately 4.5% of GDP in 2027, while the Commission projects 4.9%.
Inflation forecasts remain relatively close
The institutions are closer in their inflation projections than in their growth forecasts. The NBS expects average inflation of 3.2% in 2026 and approximately 4.3% in 2027. The IMF forecasts 3.6% and 4.4%, respectively. Consensus Economics projects inflation at around 3.9% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027, while the European Commission forecasts 4.1% and 3.9%.
Serbia’s July inflation reading was 1.9%, substantially below expectations, as stronger agricultural supply pushed food prices lower. The larger divergence appears in the 2027 outlook. The NBS combines its 4.5% growth forecast with inflation slightly above 4%, while external forecasters anticipate slower expansion and therefore place less weight on the scale of the Expo and investment multiplier.
External demand and energy costs remain constraints
The NBS’s assumptions still incorporate weak conditions among Serbia’s main trading partners. Euro-area growth is projected at approximately 0.8%-0.9% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. Higher energy prices following a renewed Middle East shock could reduce Serbia’s economic growth, while infrastructure investment is expected to increase imports and offset part of the contribution from domestic demand.
The central bank also points to its recent forecasting record. In most quarters between 2021 and 2024, actual Serbian GDP growth exceeded the NBS’s one-quarter-ahead forecasts. The bank characterises its forecasting approach during that period as conservative. Growth again exceeded expectations in early 2026, particularly in the second quarter. The differing projections reflect different assumptions about the strength and persistence of recent export growth, agricultural recovery, household consumption and the execution of the Expo-era investment programme.
The NBS’s forecast assumes that Serbia’s expanded export capacity will remain a structural feature, agriculture will recover strongly and domestic consumption will remain robust, while investment associated with Expo 2027 will raise construction and services activity without producing a proportionate deterioration in the external balance. The IMF and European Commission place greater emphasis on energy costs, weak European demand and the import intensity of infrastructure investment. The difference between the forecasts becomes more significant in 2027: the NBS scenario combines 4.5% GDP growth with a current-account deficit near 3% of GDP, compared with the IMF’s 4.0% growth and 4.5% deficit outlook. The first-half 2026 data have strengthened the assumptions behind the NBS projections.
