gas prices

2030–2035 scenario annex: Gas prices, CBAM and export margin dynamics

In a scenario characterised by global LNG tightness, regulatory uncertainty, and persistent geopolitical risk, European gas prices remain volatile with frequent spikes. Average prices may moderate, but extreme events become more common. Under this scenario, Serbian exporters without flexibility face chronic margin pressure. Steel and ceramics suffer the most, with frequent episodes of negative margins during peak energy price periods. Chemical producers encounter feedstock-driven cost shocks, while food processors experience episodic but severe margin erosion. CBAM amplifies these effects by…