external shock

Structural Risks and External Shock Transmission in Serbia’s Economy

The macroeconomic landscape in Serbia for the first quarter of 2026 is influenced by both domestic factors and a complex array of external risks. These risks are increasingly identified as structural, with potential long-term implications that transcend immediate economic shifts. A primary external risk originates from the ongoing structural crisis in the eurozone industrial sector, particularly affecting Germany. As Serbia's largest trading partner, Germany's industrial downturn directly impacts Serbian manufacturing through its export value chains. Recent indicators from Germany reveal…