Serbia’s real GDP increased 3.8% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, exceeding the preliminary 3.6% estimate and accelerating from 3.2% growth in the first quarter, according to data from the Statistical Office and the National Bank of Serbia. On a seasonally adjusted basis, economic output rose 1.5% quarter on quarter, compared with 0.5% growth in January-March. Real GDP growth for the first half of the year reached approximately 3.5%.
Construction and services lead production growth
Construction recorded the strongest expansion among major production sectors, with real gross value added rising 9.1% year on year in the second quarter. Professional, scientific, technical, administrative and support activities increased 5.8%, while the combined wholesale and retail trade, transport, storage, accommodation and food services sector expanded 4.4%.
On the expenditure side, household consumption grew 4.0%, while government consumption increased 2.5%. Gross fixed capital formation rose 3.3%, indicating continued investment activity alongside stronger consumer spending. Exports of goods and services increased 4.1%, while imports grew at a faster pace of 5.2%.
July industrial data show uneven sector performance
The stronger second-quarter GDP result was followed by weaker industrial indicators at the beginning of the third quarter. Industrial production declined 2.3% year on year in July, mainly reflecting lower energy and manufacturing output. Energy production fell 8.8%, while manufacturing output decreased 1.6%. Mining provided an exception, increasing 3.0%.
Manufacturing output declined in 15 of 24 industrial branches. Petroleum-product production dropped 13.0%, while fabricated metal products decreased 6.5%. Motor vehicle and trailer manufacturing recorded a contrasting performance, with output rising 29.6% and continuing to represent one of the stronger contributors within Serbia’s manufacturing sector. Despite the July decline, industrial production for January-July remained 0.3% above the same period of 2025. Manufacturing output increased 1.3%, while mining declined 0.1% and energy production fell 4.8%.
Retail and tourism maintain growth
Domestic retail activity remained strong in July. Real retail turnover increased 8.2% year on year, bringing cumulative growth for January-July to 7.3%. Tourism also recorded further expansion. Tourist arrivals increased 4.4% year on year in July, while overnight stays rose 1.9%. During the first seven months, arrivals were up 6.2% and overnight stays increased 4.4% compared with the same period a year earlier.
Foreign trade continued to expand despite the decline in industrial production. Serbia’s merchandise exports, measured in euros, increased 8.9% year on year in July, while imports rose 5.0%. Manufacturing and agriculture were the main drivers of export growth. On the import side, higher purchases of intermediate goods made the largest contribution to the increase.
Employment reaches stronger levels
Labour-market conditions also improved during the second quarter. Serbia’s unemployment rate fell to 7.2%, the lowest level recorded under the current labour-force survey series, while the employment rate reached 50.9%. The second-quarter figures show continued expansion in household consumption, construction and services, while the industrial data indicate a less uniform performance across production activities.
Investment also remained an important component of economic activity, with fixed investment rising 3.3% in the second quarter alongside construction growth of more than 9%. The stronger pace of imports compared with exports in the second quarter accompanied the expansion in domestic demand, while manufacturing and energy output recorded declines in July.
