Serbia’s Fiscal Council says transparency around large state investment projects has worsened, even as public capital spending reaches record levels. In its latest assessment of the country’s Fiscal Strategy, the watchdog argues the government lacks a comprehensive, easily accessible framework for tracking major infrastructure costs, progress and stated economic rationale.
The warning is issued as Serbia carries out one of the largest public investment cycles in recent history. The Fiscal Council cites roads, rail corridors, energy projects and urban infrastructure, alongside EXPO-related developments, with spending expected to total tens of billions of euros over the coming years.
The Council says that while infrastructure outlays have supported economic growth, the visibility of those expenditures has not matched their scale. It also points to gaps in how major capital projects are presented within the latest Fiscal Strategy.
Project listings shrink in latest Fiscal Strategy
According to the Fiscal Council, the latest Fiscal Strategy includes 42 large projects. It contrasts this with 52 projects listed in a revised strategy published in late 2025.
The watchdog says several infrastructure developments have been removed from the overview, which it says reduces the document’s usefulness as an investment planning tool. It adds that this change affects how comprehensively investors and financial markets can assess future spending.
The Council highlights that the “Osmeh Vojvodine” expressway and the “Vožd Karađorđe” motorway are not included in the published investment table despite their strategic importance. It estimates that projects covered in the table account for about 23% of planned public investments between 2026 and 2029.
Cost changes on road sample and wider infrastructure
The Fiscal Council also focuses on project cost developments. Its analysis indicates that for a sample of eight major road projects, total costs rose by approximately 75–80% compared with initial plans.
The watchdog says similar patterns are visible across a broader set of public infrastructure investments. It links these cost movements to difficulties in monitoring how spending evolves after projects are approved.
EXPO 2027 spending estimate and budget visibility
The Fiscal Council’s most prominent example is EXPO 2027 and related infrastructure. It estimates total spending connected to EXPO and associated projects could reach approximately €3.4 billion.
The watchdog says identifying the exact fiscal cost is difficult because expenditures are spread across multiple ministries, agencies and budget lines. It also notes that project scopes have changed repeatedly over time.
The analysis states that about €2 billion had already been spent on EXPO-related activities and supporting infrastructure by the end of 2025. Based on current government plans, it says an additional €1.4 billion could be spent through 2027.
Borrowing costs and fiscal flexibility concerns
The Fiscal Council says the implications for investors and sovereign debt markets go beyond disclosure alone. It argues that infrastructure cost overruns can affect fiscal planning, borrowing needs and public debt trajectories.
The watchdog describes Serbia’s public finances as broadly stable but warns that fiscal flexibility may be narrower than official projections suggest. It points to rising financing requirements as large projects approach completion deadlines.
The concern is heightened by Serbia’s borrowing costs being significantly above the European Union average. The Fiscal Council says financing costs remain almost double the EU average while Serbia maintains a lower debt-to-GDP ratio than many member states.
This combination, according to the Council, means project overruns or additional commitments can have a disproportionately large impact on future budget expenditures .
Disclosure requirements tied to investment program scale
The Fiscal Council says it is not opposing infrastructure investment itself. Instead, it argues that a program of this scale requires high levels of disclosure covering project costs, implementation timelines, procurement structures and revisions to original budgets .
The watchdog adds that as Serbia accelerates preparations for EXPO 2027 while pursuing highway, railway and energy investments under the “Leap into the Future” development agenda, transparency is increasingly becoming a financial issue rather than only an administrative one.
It also frames governance quality as relevant for international lenders, institutional investors and credit-rating agencies. The Council’s warning indicates that Serbia’s next challenge may involve ensuring public and financial markets can follow where capital is spent and how project costs develop over time .
