Serbia’s 2026 drought is putting pressure on farm incomes, agricultural liquidity and crop exports, with sharp declines in maize and sunflower yields arriving ahead of autumn sowing. Farmers in some of the worst-hit areas report maize yields 50%-60% below normal, while sunflower production is estimated to be 30%-40% lower. Prolonged heat and insufficient rainfall reduced soil moisture during critical stages of crop development.
The losses are being compounded by relatively weak farm-gate prices. New-crop maize has traded at around RSD 19.2-19.3 per kilogram, while sunflower purchase offers have been reported at about RSD 50/kg. Lower volumes and subdued prices are reducing revenue as farmers prepare to finance fuel, seed, fertiliser and other inputs.
Maize and sunflower losses
Maize faces the largest production impact. Serbia’s crop supplies domestic livestock feed, industrial processors and export markets, with grain transported through Danube and regional routes. The drought is expected to have its strongest economic effect on the exportable surplus rather than domestic availability. Lower volumes could affect grain traders, storage operators, transport companies and river logistics providers.
Sunflower production is also under pressure, reducing the amount of seed available to Serbia’s oilseed-processing industry. Processors may need to pay more for domestic supplies, increase imports or operate below normal capacity. The wider agricultural market was already weakening before the full drought impact appeared. The total value of sales and purchases of agricultural, forestry and fishing products fell 3.7% year on year in nominal terms during the first half of 2026, while the real decline was 0.5%.
Liquidity and government support
For farmers, the immediate problem is increasingly working capital. Lower crop revenue could force producers to reduce input purchases or postpone machinery investment, potentially affecting productivity in the following season. The drought also highlights Serbia’s limited irrigation coverage, with agriculture remaining heavily dependent on rainfall. Expanding irrigation would require investment in reservoirs, canals, pumping systems and farm-level equipment.
Farmer organisations are increasing pressure on the government for support ahead of autumn sowing. The revised 2026 budget allocates around RSD 154.1 billion to agriculture, while the Fiscal Council estimates that Serbia provides approximately €1.4 billion annually in agricultural support.
Impact on exports and food prices
Lower crop volumes could reduce agricultural exports, particularly toward CEFTA markets. Serbia’s merchandise exports increased 8.8% year on year in the first seven months of 2026, compared with a 4.4% rise in imports, but a weaker agricultural season could reduce part of that export momentum. The logistics sector could also see lower grain throughput across road, rail, storage facilities and Danube shipping, while low water levels have already disrupted river transport.
Livestock producers may face higher feed costs if grain availability tightens later in the season. This could eventually affect poultry, pork and dairy producers, as well as food prices. The Fiscal Council estimated that Serbian food prices were around 96% of the EU average in 2024, despite substantially lower household incomes. Reduced domestic supply could add pressure to prices for sunflower oil, meat products and some processed foods.
Agricultural policy under pressure
The drought comes as Serbia’s broader economy expands, with GDP growth of 3.8% year on year in the second quarter, strong retail activity, a construction rebound and exports growing faster than imports. Agriculture, however, is moving in the opposite direction. Lower maize and sunflower yields, weak purchase prices and high input costs are creating a significant income squeeze for producers. The immediate challenge is ensuring sufficient liquidity before autumn planting, while longer-term policy remains focused on irrigation, agricultural insurance, modern machinery, drought-resistant seed, storage and digital farm management alongside direct support.
